No doubt chatGPT can't replace coder's yet. If current pace of improvement continues (a big if!), it defnly will be able to in a couple of years. Honestly I expect it to happen.
Though I don't expect software dev job to go away. It'll just change in nature. Less typey typey, more managing the LLM.
To me it looks like the rate of change has already slowed having played around with gpt2 and used copilot a fair amount, chatgpt, and now chatgpt with gpt4.
There's also not orders of magnitude more existing data we can feed it anymore.
Though I don't expect software dev job to go away. It'll just change in nature. Less typey typey, more managing the LLM.