I think progress is sigmoidal rather than exponential, and it’s very hard to tell the difference in the early stages. But even sigmoidal progress with smartphones was enough to completely upend online society. We adapted, of course, but it looks nothing like it did in 2003. We’re all still using the internet; that’s basically it.
Point is, it could slow down, assuming that AGI isn’t waiting like a cat in a corner. But it’ll still displace a tremendous amount of intellectual work.
I think progress is sigmoidal rather than exponential, and it’s very hard to tell the difference in the early stages. But even sigmoidal progress with smartphones was enough to completely upend online society. We adapted, of course, but it looks nothing like it did in 2003. We’re all still using the internet; that’s basically it.
Point is, it could slow down, assuming that AGI isn’t waiting like a cat in a corner. But it’ll still displace a tremendous amount of intellectual work.