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coworkers give me wrong answers a lot more than 5% of the time.


On the other hand I can usually come up with my own estimate of how trustworthy the answer is when a human gave it to me, e.g. thanks to:

* their reputation with respect to the question domain (if I ask a basic C++ question to a C++ expert I'll trust them)

* their own communicated confidence and how good they are at seeing their own shortcomings (if they say "but don't quote me on that, better ask this other person who knows more" it's fine)

5% of bad answers doesn't matter if 99% of these times I knew I should look further. ChatGPT and others are missing this confidence indicator, and they seem to answer just as confidently no matter what.

To be clear I don't see a fundamental reason why LLMs couldn't compute some measure of confidence (which will itself be wrong from time to time but with less impact) so I expect this to be solved eventually.


Base gpt-4 already did this.(confidence about something directly correlated with ability to solve problem/answer questions correctly) You can read the technical paper. But the hammer of alignment(RLHF) took it away.




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