Interestingly, I am in the middle of replacing my HVAC which died last fall. I was dead set on getting a heat pump. I didn't really care about the increased upfront cost, so long as I was getting increased comfort and there would be a reduction in costs after install.
When I really looked at the numbers though, my cost of electricity is so high, and my natural gas is so cheap, that I would need a COP of over 5 or an HSPF of around 20 on the heat pump to just break even on heating- I pay about 16.5 cents per KWH for electricity all in, and $1.05/therm for natural gas in NJ just outside of NYC. Efficiencies that high don't exist on central units. It would cost me easily an extra $100/month to heat my home, and the additional upfront cost was $7-10k. In cooling mode they are slightly less efficient than the best AC units as well, not by a significant amount- but its not like it will make up for it on the cooling side of things.
I really wanted to go this route, but this would be an extra upfront as well as ongoing cost. I really have no option but to replace with a conventional system and in 10-15 years re-evaluate. I will likely eventually get solar, but my roof is currently close to, but not yet at its end of life, and I have a townhome with limited roof space and a historic district to contend with, its not going to solve the electricity cost problem.
When I really looked at the numbers though, my cost of electricity is so high, and my natural gas is so cheap, that I would need a COP of over 5 or an HSPF of around 20 on the heat pump to just break even on heating- I pay about 16.5 cents per KWH for electricity all in, and $1.05/therm for natural gas in NJ just outside of NYC. Efficiencies that high don't exist on central units. It would cost me easily an extra $100/month to heat my home, and the additional upfront cost was $7-10k. In cooling mode they are slightly less efficient than the best AC units as well, not by a significant amount- but its not like it will make up for it on the cooling side of things.
I really wanted to go this route, but this would be an extra upfront as well as ongoing cost. I really have no option but to replace with a conventional system and in 10-15 years re-evaluate. I will likely eventually get solar, but my roof is currently close to, but not yet at its end of life, and I have a townhome with limited roof space and a historic district to contend with, its not going to solve the electricity cost problem.