Same thought as well. I recently self installed an 18k BTU unit. The lines came pre-charged, but I wanted it to be run exactly to length. For someone to come and do just that part (cut, flare and vacuum/charge the lines) cost me just $150. I got the unit (a pioneer) for under $900. The rest of the world has heat pumps figured out, no need for a tesla-ish version charging a premium. Cost will be the biggest factor for adoption for ElectricAir, imo.
If anything, a sweaty startup offering just the install for a nominal fee would do really well here.
>What the USA does NOT have figured out is how to accomplish trades like HVAC and construction without massive grift.
The US has professional licensing schemes which increase costs. I had to work 5 years in the field doing HVAC work before even being eligible to get a license. Licensing limits the supply of labor while (in theory) establishing better quality. I've lived in countries with zero professional licensing and the quality of work is atrocious.
I have had incredibly atrocious work done by licensed individuals of all stripes. In one case they took out a mechanics lien on the house when I refused to pay for unfinished and shoddy work and then one of their workers assaulted my wife.
- Horizontal exhaust run from a furnace that was 25x longer than specified by the manufacturer
- Putting registers in very wrong places (like 2 in one room and 0 in another instead of one in each)
- (For Electrical) Rather than using junction boxes, just wire-nut together some Romex in random places in the attic.
Geez, sorry you dealt with that. In my town, this would never pass inspection, which certainly costs something in taxes, permits, and labor cost, but I think it would be difficult to end up saddled with bad work.
All the contractors around here push really hard to do the work without permits. It takes at least twice as long to finish with permits since there needs to be an inspection after each step that will get covered up by something else (and since much work is done unpermitted, many contractors forget to do this and have to redo work).
I always pull permits these days because of stupid stuff contractors have done; the horizontal duct run that was way out of spec was found by an inspector and I had to call 4 HVAC contractors before finding one that would do a quote that included permits...
> The rest of the world has heat pumps figured out
A single digit percentage of homes globally are using heat pumps, most of the world does not have it figured out. That's specifically why Electric Air exists, they're chasing what is going to be a gigantic market (if it were already such a figured out market they couldn't get funding without a revolutionary 10x approach, YC would have little interest).
Ours are exactly the same sort of units that I saw in Singapore - they're A/C systems, but can do cold or hot. I remember when I saw the 'heat-pumps' in Singapore, I was like "Wow, why does everyone have a heat-pump" and everyone looked at me and went "What's a heat-pump?" as they always called them A/C units - doubt they ever got above 16 degrees or something.
You just helped me realise (as an Aussie living in Europe) that when some people are saying "air-to-air heat pump" what they mean is what an Aussie or Kiwi would call "reverse cycle air conditioner" - which are extremely common and affordable.
The heat pumps I have seen personally in Europe are geothermal, very big, and very expensive.
> The heat pumps I have seen personally in Europe are geothermal, very big, and very expensive.
In NL I saw loads of water/water heat pumps (so using geothermal) in plans for new buildings. The latest plans now seem to prefer air/water. The air/water is cheaper and the units nowadays are much quieter than they used to be. This is just my observations, I could be way off.
I think your reverse cycle ac would be an air-to-air heat pump. Air-to-water is more like your heat pump water heater, with the hot water then going through radiators.
Aligns with our experience in China for the four years before the pandemic. Apart from a couple of apartments we visited in Harbin that had gas boiler radiators, everwhere else we found apartments heated and cooled by heat pumps. It makes total sense in countries that have hot summers and cold winters.
Europe as a whole has been utilizing heat pumps for residential heavily over the past decade. With global temperatures rising, heat pump installs in OECD countries are skyrocketing as the climate becomes uncomfortable for larger and larger groups of people.
In the Netherlands, I can purchase a minisplit with installation for under €4k. It could get cheaper if I wanted something less powerful.
While your point about "single digit percentage[s]" is accurate, it's not helpful when discussing the merits of this product, or the wider industry as a whole in most of western world.
> it's not helpful when discussing the merits of this product
Of course it is. How would global market size, present and future, not be helpful as a discussion topic? The parent I replied to was referencing that very issue, directly or indirectly. It indicates heat pumps are still a relatively small market, and the OP company is betting it's going to get a lot larger, meaning there is a landgrab going on right now and they're aiming for capturing a segment of that future market.
You contradict your claim that it's not a helpful discussion point in pointing out how usage is skyrocketing (ie the market is getting bigger fast) and having to reference the larger established use in some parts of Europe to try to make your point. You proved it is a pertinent discussion point in trying to claim that it's not.
> I’m a bit concerned about what happens when it freezes. Can the outdoor unit still I operate?
Yes as long as the parts where chosen by someone with a bare minimum of competence. The efficiency will be lower than ideal but still better than electric radiators. Norway has very high heat-pump installation rates.
$500 + $150 (install) mini split works fine in Japan and it should be fine for other worlds where central heating isn't a thing. US is one of the richest country and rest of the world spend less.
I agree, in fact a couple things in the pitch don't add up.
> ... where the 80M single family homes in the US replace their furnaces with heat pumps.
Where did they get this statistic? I already have a heat pump and know many that do too. Are we included in this 80M estimate? What about those in the northern half of the US that also need back-up heat for when it is very cold? They aren't going to replace their furnaces with a heat pump. They might add one to their setup but replace, no.
> In addition the process of getting a heat pump is painful, including finding a trustworthy contractor, sorting out financing, and wading through rebates. And finally contractors struggle with installs because of the difficulty of properly sizing the system, and understanding if your duct work is compatible with a heat pump
I don't know the contractors they are talking about, but I literally had to say the words "heat pump" to my local Carrier installer and they did all the rest.
> What about those in the northern half of the US that also need back-up heat for when it is very cold?
This heat pump is supposed to work to -15F and includes back-up resistive heat. Theoretically it can replace a heater and air conditioner anywhere. I know people north of Chicago that use a similar heat pump and resistive backup system and it's been fine to -30F keeping the house at 69F.
> I don't know the contractors they are talking about, but I literally had to say the words "heat pump" to my local Carrier installer and they did all the rest.
There's definitely a bias against them when natural gas is available. Until probably the past 3-4 years very few HVAC contractors in the midwest were familiar with heat pumps or had bad experiences 5-15 years back and recommended against them as it's "too cold" for them to work here.
My gas-powered water heater failed in my northern US location. I asked a friend who’s a plumbing engineer (!) who said to get a heat pump. I called the HVAC company which had installed the gas water heater and gas furnace some years before and asked for a heat pump water hearer, and they said oh yeah we sell one of those and people love it. I get the feeling that as you say 5-15 years ago it would have been a different story but now it’s routine.
Clarification: resistive heating is very near 100% efficient, meaning that all of the energy you pull ends up in the air or water it is meant for. Gas water heating is at the very best ~90-95% efficient (e.g., top-end condensing tankless water heaters), but often as low as 60%: plenty of heat going out the exhaust. You think resistive heating is inefficient because policy has made electricity much more expensive per kwh than gas/oil.
The problem with trying to charge a nominal/flat fee is the same for all contractors.
Not all houses are alike, and you'll never know what is inside a wall/attic where a customer wants to install it, or what kind of electrical work will be needed. (might have to run a new 240v line). Dirt work may be required for the exterior condenser.
Totally get it. If you're into it for a few k to install, that's one thing. To me, the total costs for this seem a bit high. Who knows, maybe with scale things get cheaper. I'm definitely not their target customer, despite wanting to be.
If anything, a sweaty startup offering just the install for a nominal fee would do really well here.