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What interest rate does that assume for depositors? Sure, the face value of the bonds in 2032 dollars might have been enough to pay back the 2022 obligations to their depositors, but banks are routinely offering 2-4% interest in high interest savings accounts now. So either depositors will leave for better options, or SVB would have had to offer competitive rates (digging the insolvency hole deeper).



Big banks are still offering sub-1% rates:

https://www.usbank.com/bank-accounts/savings-accounts/elite-...

Compare that to a money market fund from a stock broker at 4.5%:

https://www.schwab.com/money-market-funds

The question is, how quickly do simple folks figure out they're being slowly bled, and start moving their cash to some place where it's appreciated?




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