There is absolutely no evidence people above FDIC limits will recover “80-90% of the capital”. It’s a guess, a crapshoot, and it’s not taking into account historical loss rates for banks of this size that were seized by the FDIC. See also: IndyMac, WaMu, etc.
And whatever they do get back above FDIC limits, it will not be immediate. Months at a minimum.
"The closure had no immediate effect on depositors. All deposits even those above the FDIC limit were transferred to Chase. As the FDIC stated, "No one lost any money that was deposited in Washington Mutual Bank." In addition, all existing WaMu CDs were honored by Chase to maturity."
Looks like for IndyMac, uninsured deposits got paid back at 50 cents on the dollar.
If this is like WaMu, the bank opens on Monday and everything goes back to normal. If this is like IndyMac (or worse, Silver State Bank, 11 cents on the dollar recovered), a bunch of startups are now fucked companies.
I expect the losers in SVB will be the same as for WaMu: bondholders, shareholders, and investors. No reason yet to expect depositors will suffer anything more than inconvenience. And if, like WaMu, the FDIC can rapidly effect a sale to another bank that inconvenience could actually be quite short.
I honestly expect their will be an acquisition on Monday, with a lot of executive (whitehouse) pressure behind it. So much of the American economy is based on a tech advantage as is its national security. I could of course be completely wrong.
And whatever they do get back above FDIC limits, it will not be immediate. Months at a minimum.