I have a love-hate relationship with this. I love it conceptually and I think it's the right model, but it has a lot of problems.
For one, people on unemployment benefits don't even have close to 49 Euros allocated to them for transport. They'll likely be overpaying for local trips and continue to not be able to afford long distance trips.
And two, the infrastructure here is just not ready for more passengers. The 3 months where the 9-Euro ticket existed, public transport was unusable. I upgraded to long distance trains (which were deserted) several times to bypass the hours of delays and the overfilled trains (where masking mandates could not be upheld). I don't have a car and I didn't plan to ever have one (until now, maybe), so I fear my only mode of transport is going to be even more hellish than usual.
Handling of very low income situations is separate (and exists in all?/most? areas of Germany), and most areas have their own very low income ticket for much less then 49€. This ticket was never targeting income groups which are already get income related social benefits (through Germany could make a low-income/social version of this ticket in the future).
> The 3 months where the 9-Euro ticket existed,
This was a very unusual situation where there where a lot of dynamics making people take advantage of the ticket at least once in exactly 3 month. Some people did things they normally wouldn't have done because they felt they would else wise lose out. Additionally the month before that time many people did feel constrained and used that time to compensate for the month before.
I wouldn't expect this to be a problem as the dynamics around it are very different. Not limited to 3 month, not that much cheaper then your normal monthly ticket (and especially more expensive then one or two full-day tickets), not hyped up that much, not the first time something like that was possible, etc.
The 9€ ticket was a special event, the 49€ ticket is more an improvement of the daily live expenses and convenience.
I expect many people to buy the 49€ ticket, I don't expect a massive increase in local transportation usage short term (but a constant slow incremental increase due to people slowly changing habits).
For one, people on unemployment benefits don't even have close to 49 Euros allocated to them for transport. They'll likely be overpaying for local trips and continue to not be able to afford long distance trips.
And two, the infrastructure here is just not ready for more passengers. The 3 months where the 9-Euro ticket existed, public transport was unusable. I upgraded to long distance trains (which were deserted) several times to bypass the hours of delays and the overfilled trains (where masking mandates could not be upheld). I don't have a car and I didn't plan to ever have one (until now, maybe), so I fear my only mode of transport is going to be even more hellish than usual.