Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit login

Is there anyone else in the sporting world that's such a statistical outlier?



Don Bradman in Cricket.

Apparently, a good batting average for a modern-day batsman is 40+ with those above 50 being exceptional. Bradman's average was 99.94. The second highest average of all time is 60.97.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Bradman


It's difficult to emphasize what a complete statistical outlier Bradman is.

As the parent poster points out, the next highest average is in the low 60s (actually 61.87 now[1]). Looking at the stats though, we see averages are roughly a normal curve, centered on 40 with a standard deviation of a little over 9[2]. This puts Bradman over 6 standard deviations above average!

[1] https://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/content/records/282910.htm...

[2] https://www.significancemagazine.com/sports/24-did-don-bradm...


I'd be surprised if anyone in any large scale sport ever dominated like Bradman or will be as dominant in the future. He missed part of the prime of his career due to WW2, so who knows what could have happened if he'd avoided the interruption.

He's probably not as well known as someone like Gretzky in North America, so his name wouldn't immediately spring to mind on forums like this. In cricket, there just isn't any debate about the greatest - the only area of interest is about who comes next (Viv Richards or Brian Lara in my opinion)


> He's probably not as well known as someone like Gretzky in North America, so his name wouldn't immediately spring to mind on forums like this.

I think you might find there are a fairly large number of Indian, Australian and English people on this forum who will find his name does spring to mind immediately. It's more about the timezone than numbers.

> who comes next (Viv Richards or Brian Lara in my opinion)

Tendulkar.

Viv Richards was amazing at his best but declined badly. Lara's best innings were better than anyone (maybe even Bradman) but he wasn't as consistent and unfortunately he was playing in a declining team.

But I'm old enough to remember his 1993 innings of 277 at the SCG. In some ways that was enough to hold off Australia being undisputably the best team in the world for another couple of years.


Gretzky is even more insane. Fun facts:

If you don't count his goals, he still has more points than the next guy. Points are goals plus assists.

Something like 15 of the best 20 seasons in history by points are him.

Player of the year every year for a decade.

The only thing that makes it look less spectacular is that ice hockey is not the world's favourite sport.

Messi is the goat of a game that is massively popular on every continent, that you can find people playing in a park in almost every city.


Not that Gretzky wasn’t great. He indisputably was and his title as the GOAT of hockey is totally fair.

However, these records are incredibly influenced by the era he played in. Look at a list of the highest scoring seasons for teams ever and it’s either far pre expansion or the late 70s and 80s - Gretzky’s era.

Messi’s records are astounding for the reason that soccer scoring trends have remained far more stable (imo)


Referees are nicer to attackers nowadays, plus there's several rule tweaks done in recent decades to make attacking more worthwhile. Goals scored at WC bottomed in 1990 iirc.


Goals scored isn't a great metric though since there's more teams than ever. Highest goal to game ratio was during the 50s.


Yeah I meant goals/game bottomed. It came down from the 50s towards Italia 90 and the authorities decided to make some changes.


Most athletes who are at the top of their sport when they reach age ~40 tend to be crazy outliers. I’m thinking Michael Schumacher (F1), Tom Brady (NFL), Roger Federer (tennis), etc.


They are outliers because it's a brand new phenomenon. This generation has the first sportsmen to push 40 in a lot of sports, beit Federer, James Anderson, Brady, Ibrahimovic. It will become quite common as time goes on I expect.

p.s. Schumacher drove a car, so I'm not sure he is a fair comparison to physical sportsmen


F1 drivers are required to be extremely fit. Braking and cornering at over 4G for almost 2 hours, applying well over 300lb pressure to the brake pedal repeatedly, in cockpit temperatures over 110F, would destroy most athletes from other sports.


Please see my reply to your sibling.

> would destroy most athletes from other sports

This is pretty hyperbolic, I wonder if you might like to reconsider it.


It’s not hyperbolic at all. Subject them to the same forces and you’ll see.


It’s not hyperbolic in the slightest. Which other discipline would condition its participants to endure the combination of forces and temperatures over the duration I described above?


Doesn't that prove my point that they are completely different things and not comparable?

If you read my other comment you will see my line of reasoning. At no point have I denigrated racing drivers, so there's no need to rush to their defence.


If that’s your point then yes, fair enough, there is no direct comparison. The way your original P.S. was worded gave the opposite impression though, and “racing drivers aren’t athletes” seems to be a POV many people have.


One of the reasons Schumacher was able to dominate was that he was one of the first F1 drivers to train for it as a physical sport.


Martin Brundle said if he’d realised earlier in his driving career how vital fitness was, he would have achieved much more.


Your postscript is a bit unfair to racing drivers - it's actually an incredibly physically demanding sport.


I never demeaned racing drivers. I just don't think they are a fair comparison to physical sportsmen who turn and jink and sprint in an open physical space and the effect this has on their bodies.

Going past an opposition player in basketball, football or rugby is very similar. Sprinting to the line to keep a ball in play is something tennis players, footballers and cricketers all do.

Driving is entirely different, and not really comparable.


Definitely Gretzky!


Curry’s three pointer shooting


fivethirtyeight also had a feature article about it in 2015: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/stephen-curry-is-the-re...

And he just got his finals MVP in 2022, kind of the only thing people lamented about for their careers.

They have pretty interesting similarities: * their teams in their primes, GSW and Barcelona are both dynasty teams with highest level teamplay. GSW rountinely have the highest number assists in the league, Barcelona have more successive passes than almost any other teams. * they are both considered more technical and humble comparing to peers like L. James, and C. Ronaldo, which pocess more physical talents and show dominant personalities


Wayne Gretzky!


- Mondo Duplantis - Sydney Mac Laughlin - Usain Bolt - Jan Železný




Join us for AI Startup School this June 16-17 in San Francisco!

Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: