The threat is there, sure, but they have to understand that escalation like this will and has to lead to escalation from the West, otherwise we are showing Russia can do what it likes without costs. Or we can just appease them and watch them try to destroy our way of life anyway.
They are already paying the price: hydrocarbons are mostly gone as a source of income; besides they cannot even spend that income due to sanctions. And yet they continue the "hybrid war". I'm on your side, but I'm also realistic.
Higher prices on the open market yes, but not enough to offset the volume loss. A good chunk of new volume is sold to China, which buys at staggering discounts (as high as 50% over market rates).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_research_vessel_Yantar