I mean, if you're going to stick to the two-consecutive quarters definition, then you would be saying that we were in a recession, and are now out of one. Third quarter GDP estimates stand at 1.9% growth.
Reported as of current monthly figures. Estimates are even higher.
Keep in mind that the "two consecutive quarters" is just snapshots of the monthly data at 3 month marks. They get revised over time.
It's completely possible that data from Q2 will be revised upwards and there won't be two consecutive quarters of negative GPD in the future. The Q2 data has already been revised upwards once.
It’s not about the amount of measurement points, uncertainties in dollar amounts tend to scale as sqrt. When you error propagate that you see that inflation uncertainty scales with inflation.
Very simple model
Inflation=v1/v2
D(inflation)=sqrt((D(v1)/v2)^2+(v1/v2^2 D(v2))^2)
Suppose
D(v1)=c sqrt(v1)
D(v2)=c sqrt(v2)
D(inflation)=c sqrt(v1/v2^2+v1^2/v2^3)= c sqrt(inflation+inflation^2)/sqrt(v2)
So can be seen that the leading term for uncertainty in inflation is linear with inflation.
