> why would it be hard or illogical for the NSA to setup an innocent seeming "good guys" radiating non-profit chat service that is supposedly secure
Let's also investigate the inverse side of this. Supposing Signal works, would the NSA not instead want to launch a disinformation campaign against them and exaggerate downsides? I think such action would also be easy and logical.
But I don't think that's happening, to be clear. I think people are just passionate about the subjects and with passion people are often excessively head strong (this is something disinformation campaigns prey on btw. They often play both sides because chaos is often more effective pushing a singular narrative. See "malinformation").
> Oh, and Signal is based in the US. That fact by itself pretty much means all bets are off when it comes to security or anonymity.
(anonymity. FTFY) I do agree that being US based comes with certain risks, but the US is not authoritarian and is unable to force companies to collect data. This is enough to raise suspicion but not enough to be damning. The suspicion is also reduced given that Signal publicly discloses subpoenas that they receive. Insiders like Snowden also advocate for its usage as well as many major players in the security community, globally. One can come back and suggest that this is disinformation but that increases the complexity of the honeypot campaign and as history has shown, complex conspiracies unravel quickly. Especially in high profile cases, and since Signal is universally suggested as the gold standard by the security community, I'd argue it is pretty high profile.
The problem with conspiracy theories is that it is easy to turn evidence against a conspiracy into part of the plot and coverup. But this just exponentially increases complexity. And anyone that has worked for or with the government will gladly tell you how ineffective they are (often in the form of complaints). After all, two can keep a secret only if one of them is dead. The fact that it is difficult to prove (and people have been trying for over a decade without yielding any more evidence than you have put here, +RadioFreeAsia) is actually evidence to the contrary. More should have been uncovered if there was a real plot (especially considering how complex it would need to be).
Let's also investigate the inverse side of this. Supposing Signal works, would the NSA not instead want to launch a disinformation campaign against them and exaggerate downsides? I think such action would also be easy and logical.
But I don't think that's happening, to be clear. I think people are just passionate about the subjects and with passion people are often excessively head strong (this is something disinformation campaigns prey on btw. They often play both sides because chaos is often more effective pushing a singular narrative. See "malinformation").
> Oh, and Signal is based in the US. That fact by itself pretty much means all bets are off when it comes to security or anonymity.
(anonymity. FTFY) I do agree that being US based comes with certain risks, but the US is not authoritarian and is unable to force companies to collect data. This is enough to raise suspicion but not enough to be damning. The suspicion is also reduced given that Signal publicly discloses subpoenas that they receive. Insiders like Snowden also advocate for its usage as well as many major players in the security community, globally. One can come back and suggest that this is disinformation but that increases the complexity of the honeypot campaign and as history has shown, complex conspiracies unravel quickly. Especially in high profile cases, and since Signal is universally suggested as the gold standard by the security community, I'd argue it is pretty high profile.
The problem with conspiracy theories is that it is easy to turn evidence against a conspiracy into part of the plot and coverup. But this just exponentially increases complexity. And anyone that has worked for or with the government will gladly tell you how ineffective they are (often in the form of complaints). After all, two can keep a secret only if one of them is dead. The fact that it is difficult to prove (and people have been trying for over a decade without yielding any more evidence than you have put here, +RadioFreeAsia) is actually evidence to the contrary. More should have been uncovered if there was a real plot (especially considering how complex it would need to be).