If only more people knew this they would stop finding patterns where they probably don't exist.
We should scream it to the rooftops.
Skill + Luck = Success
Skill is probably necessary, but not sufficient for success.
All success is due to the confluence of differing variables:
capital/relations/knowledge/attitude/technology/society/education/opportunism/alliances/utility etc. etc.
over a long period of time.
Humans like to explain things away through single factor theorems.
Either "the rich are rich because they are intelligent", or "they are lucky". False dichotomy alert!
To become rich it is usually a combination of the two, with luck playing the bigger role in leveraging skill to the highest levels of success in noisy areas ( business vs. athletics ).
Wealth like stock market prices and other one bit measures of systems of ASTROUNDING complexity rarely tell you what it was that lead to it being the way it is.
It's like sound analysis.
The addition of various agents which produce a point in space over time, to which you do not know which percentage is violin ( skill ), and which percentage is the cymbal ( luck ).
If only more people knew this they would stop finding patterns where they probably don't exist.
We should scream it to the rooftops.
Skill + Luck = Success
Skill is probably necessary, but not sufficient for success.
All success is due to the confluence of differing variables:
capital/relations/knowledge/attitude/technology/society/education/opportunism/alliances/utility etc. etc.
over a long period of time.
Humans like to explain things away through single factor theorems.
Either "the rich are rich because they are intelligent", or "they are lucky". False dichotomy alert!
To become rich it is usually a combination of the two, with luck playing the bigger role in leveraging skill to the highest levels of success in noisy areas ( business vs. athletics ).
Wealth like stock market prices and other one bit measures of systems of ASTROUNDING complexity rarely tell you what it was that lead to it being the way it is.
It's like sound analysis.
The addition of various agents which produce a point in space over time, to which you do not know which percentage is violin ( skill ), and which percentage is the cymbal ( luck ).