Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit login

>the NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales".

Which we have right now. But don't trust objective observations of reality. Just Trust the Experts™ and call anyone who disagrees a conspiracy theorist.




> "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months,

> real GDP

> real income

real income is down ~1% since Sept 2020 or Sept 2021 [1]. hardly seems like a "significant decline".

> employment

employment has increased since Sept 2020 or Sept 2021 [2] and infact has been steadily increasing since April 2020.

> industrial production

industrial production has increased since Sept 2020 or Sept 2021 [3] and infact has been steadily increasing since April 2020.

> wholesale-retail sales

retail sales has increased since Sept 2020 or Sept 2021 [4] and infact has been steadily increasing since April 2020.

so 1 of 5 indicators shows significant decline, 1 shows minor decline, 3 show increase.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPI

[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS

[3] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO

[4] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSXFS




Consider applying for YC's W25 batch! Applications are open till Nov 12.

Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: