I'm not talking about predicting stock prices. I'm talking about looking backwards.
You said staying at a job for longer than 3 years is committing yourself to wage depression. That's not always true. If you have been at a company for 3 years and were given a 4-year grant at a $10 stock price, but today the stock price is $50, it's unlikely you'll find better compensation by leaving and should probably just stay for year #4.