My usual timeline at a new job requires an average of ~6 months to be effective. After that I work hard the next year or so on leading projects and major features.
I try to build my network of influence by contributing
to cross-team projects, and if possible work on internal common libraries, forked open source projects.
See if I can file patents.
This should lead to a promotion within ~2y, less than 3y; if that does not happen, I start looking for either a new team or new job all together.
(In some companies interviewing for another team requires the same amount of effort of interviewing outside. I usually pursue both.)
If I don't get the promotion, it usually means that either the team I work with does not have enough impactful work to justify a promotion, or manager is not interested (capable) in sponsoring for one.
This might work early in your career, but should plateau very quickly.
Junior to mid level in 2 years is easy.
Mid level to senior in 2 years is doable. It would definitely be considered fast in most big tech.
Senior to Staff in 2 years is not gonna happen. I'm not saying it's impossible, but it's probably extremely rare.
I agree with the concept of optimizing for growth and learning in your current role, but people should also be aware that getting to the next level is aprox. exponentially harder the further up you go.
Yes and no, very much depends on landing in the right team with the right manager.
That's why it is important to realize it asap, and move on if that is not the case. So that you don't waste your time.
I also find very important to discuss the promotion with your manager in 1-1
and be clear that's what you are aiming for. Just to set the right expectations.
This should lead to a promotion within ~2y, less than 3y; if that does not happen, I start looking for either a new team or new job all together.
(In some companies interviewing for another team requires the same amount of effort of interviewing outside. I usually pursue both.)
If I don't get the promotion, it usually means that either the team I work with does not have enough impactful work to justify a promotion, or manager is not interested (capable) in sponsoring for one.
Either way, I have reasons to move on.