When I had just moved to the Bay Area back in the mid 90's, I read Robert Graysmith's book on the Zodiac Killer — just looking for a paperback in the grocery store to read after I got off work. It was a spooky and uneasy read.
It surprises me that the killer could outlive justice and die taking the secret of his identity with him to the grave but it appears that is what has happened.
I read Graysmith's book though a bit skeptically, assuming there was a lot of ginning up by the author to make for a more compelling read. Skeptical too of the Zodiac's claims — I don't believe he committed all the murders he bragged about.
Nonetheless, I couldn't avoid perceiving a sort of psychological wrangling that the murderer might have gone through. As though after a couple of simple shootings, he decides to up the game and try a stabbing. But it seems as though the awkward stabbing experience chills the killer and he perhaps even has second thoughts...
I confess I am drawn by "Zodiac killer identified" headlines for decades now. At first hoping they were zeroing in on a capture, but later, as it becomes more likely he has died of old age, just out of an old curiosity.
This new suspect is compelling. But the comment about "so many nuts in the 60's" rings true as well. This guy could have just been another nut, but not a murderer.
Because it's in the interest of the self-perpetuating entity that claims monopoly on violence for us to believe it's using and enforcing it wisely and effctively.
Looking at his big thread, there are a lot of small circumstantial facts that he thinks adds up. That may be, but it's very hard to judge if confirmation bias/multiple comparisons is at play.
The most serious claims mostly rely on the daughters' recollection. However, if they can be independently verified, I'd say the case is pretty strong:
* The daughter says he abused her over her dating and drug use. If her recollection can be trusted, that was on the same day as the first murders.
* The father wrote a letter to a zine in response to a guy whose daughter had been exposed to drugs, where he claims that he was in a similar situation once and that some people are no longer alive because of it. He asked the editor of the zine to not print that part, too (He still did). This part doesn't rely on the daughter's memory.
* Putting those two together, it does look an awful lot like he might have been about to kill his daughter, then changed his mind and went out to "get revenge" on some random youths who he felt were the sort responsible for corrupting his daughter instead.
I think this is the strongest part of the evidence, so I'd like to see the true crime nerds engage with that, rather than, say, with the suggestion that he got his symbol from the minutemen group, or any of the more speculative stuff.
Also, there's the bloody fingerprint stuff. It hasn't been checked for this guy yet, but it has apparently been checked and found not to match for the other candidates the true crime nerds have launched over the years; based on that I'd say this one is, presently, at least as good a candidate as those.
The circumstantial evidence is pretty bad for this case, I made it to part 2 of his threads and I'm no longer interested in what he has to say. When you put forward tons of weak evidence, that doesn't make you look more correct, it makes you look desperate.
Particularly bad are the visual comparisons. What the hell is he looking at? In most cases he is simply wrong and you can see it with your own eyes.
- the sketch of Zodiac has much thinner nose
- the feathered arrows do not match, the feathers are drawn distinctly differently
(Part 2)
- the ampersands don't look the same to me
- the crosshairs absolutely do not match.
It leaves me with the impressions that he has decided Doerr is the Zodiac and will take any bit of evidence and stretch it to fit that notion.
edit: the feathered arrows look more like evidence against the idea he's Zodiac. He drew arrows a different way.
You did exactly the thing I asked you to NOT do. You hammer at the weakest evidence like a defense lawyer, instead of looking at the strongest evidence as someone looking for the truth should do.
The author making the case is not on trial here. The goal is to look PAST how he "makes himself look" and consider the actual interesting things. The interesting things are, to repeat:
* The guy appears to have indirectly admitted to murdering more than one person, in connection to events "vaguely similar" to the drugging of a child (his own words).
* The circumstances he describes during that admission match up with a domestic violence incident described by his daughter, on the day the first killing happened.
* The guy, unlike all the other proposed candidates, has not been ruled out as a fingerprint match.
You understand how this is more important, right? Your - or the author's - eyeballing of sketches and symbols could easily be wrong, it's low quality evidence either way. Being present in range of the crime scene, at the time of the crime, with killing more than one person and a likely motive admitted to in writing is NOT low quality evidence. That's "oh dear, this needs to be looked into" evidence.
No, I refuse. It's not my job to wade through a bunch of, not just weak evidence, but some absolute baloney. He said multiple things that are simply false and can be verified with my own eyes.
And if your bullet points are the strongest points, those are incredibly weak.
- He says he murdered one or more people, that makes him the Zodiac?
- He had a domestic violence incident the same day of the first Zodiac killing. Okay?
- He hasn't been ruled out as a fingerprint match. So have millions of other people. I haven't been ruled out as fingerprint match either. And I killed several people. (Or did I? Or am I just bullshitting about that?)
Sure, maybe he's the Zodiac. Maybe with further digging someone will find some actual evidence, instead of what has been offered by the author in the Twitter thread. But this is all thin.
I've spent a lot of time reading about this case through the years and this guy's personality certainly fits. It also screams Internet forum user. Early/mid 90's this guy would've been mid/late 60s. Might be a stretch but it's possible he was online. I wonder if his daughter could comment on whether or not he had an email address or used a PC. The guy spent so much time writing letters and reading esoteric stuff he surely would've posted like crazy. Might be more clues there.
The challenge to that scenario, is that there's no way to know if the bloody fingerprints are from Zodiac's hand.
So if the fingerprints from the military don't match, it doesn't actually eliminate Doerr because we don't know for a fact who the fingerprints from the cab belong to (even if it seems most likely it's from Zodiac). For all we know Zodiac staged the prints in one manner or another.
As society becomes more and more surveillance bound by cheap cameras and interconnected devices, the phenomenon of a cold and masterminding murderer terrorizing us for years with public media taunts, and yet eluding the authorities, seems more and more out of out possibility. Truly terrifying that this was a real story.
That’s not even close to accurate, first the clearance rate has actually been falling.
The actual numbers are terrible: for every 100 homicides, 61 percent are cleared, and then 70 percent of those—43 cases—lead to conviction. And this assumes that the correct person is convicted. According to some estimates, four percent of inmates on death row are innocent. Wrongful conviction rates are assumed to be higher for lesser crimes since officials are less rigorous in establishing guilt when capital punishment is not on the table.https://fee.org/articles/most-violent-crimes-in-the-us-go-un...
Here in Finland there was interesting example where someone was selling hitman services over tor-network.
They caught him because he left a plastic bag in the crime scene, the plastic bag had a sticker, from that they could tell that it had been used to weight a banana and could also pin down the place and a time.
They then used the surveillance footage in store to identify the person.
It’s not easy to compare such rates between countries. Especially in terms of finding the correct killer vs someone to blame.
Also, “this study did not include cases of missing persons where no body was found. In all four countries, such cases are usually labelled as a disappeared person, even if the police strongly suspect a homicide. Following other studies (Sturup et al., 2015), because of the unknown nature of these cases (including potential suicides or voluntary disappearances), these cases have not been included in the study. This may have resulted in a general under-count of the total number of homicides, including an under-count of unsolved homicides.”
"That’s not even close to accurate, first the clearance rate has actually been falling."
While this is true, they are two different scenarios.
Clearance rate is generally low. However, if you have a serial killer thsy gains public attention they will dedicate order of magnitude more resources to that case. Frankly, a lot of murders don't even make the news, and many of those don't get very much in the way of resources from police. Then we have the circumstances around each murder. In some places, the people in the neighborhood don't want to get involved and talk. It's also more likely that you leave more evidence if you're committing additonal crimes.
So I agree with both of you - clearance rate is falling and it's less likely to have publicly known serial killers go unsolved.
I agree. It seems more or less impossible to commit a heinous crime these days and get away with it. I admit it's one positive outcome of our "surveillance state" (and I'm not implying Big Brother — people put Ring doorbells on their front doors, businesses and banks install cameras for security, etc).
The United Kingdom is nothing if not a surveillance state, and their crime clearance rates are lower than ever. They seem to have a different set of priorities for their state surveillance apparatus.
Looking at the homicide clearance stats of cities near where the Zodiac killer was active, it looks like getting away with it is at least as easy as it ever was.
Not true. Homicides are not equal nobody cares if a drug dealer is found dismembered.
Totally rando civilians getting killed is what society cares about and those are down.
All homicides are down but clearance rates are terrible. I don't know of there is objective evidence to support your claims that murders of randos are routinely solved.
Of course in the past a lot of cases were "solved" by basically blaming the murder on a local vagrant who happened to be in the area of the crime. The fact that things like DNA evidence are making this untenable is actually a good thing even if it means fewer cases are closed.
Murder rates are also down substantially since the 1990s. The leading theories include reduced lead exposure and fewer neglected and unwanted children thanks to reproductive healthcare. In either case, the missing murderers would’ve been more impulsive, more careless, and easier to catch. Many of the murders that go unsolved today, likely would’ve gone unsolved in the past, too.
Plus, some of the cleared murders in the past were simply blamed on innocent black men by a racist system. Look at the Innocence Project for examples. We still have a problem with all that, but surely it’s not as bad as it was in the 1970s.
Another contributing factor is that so much forensics and police resources are wasted on victimless drug crimes. It’s an lot easier to bust a corner boy selling drugs than to track down a murderer.
Isn't that the CSI effect? People assume they will be caught so they don't bother trying. The ones that do try, now have more info on how to avoid detection.
>There is, as it happens, an easy way to determine once and for all whether Paul Doerr committed those murders. When the Zodiac killed his last victim, taxi driver Paul Stine, he left behind several bloody fingerprints (which, it should be noted, have never been linked to any of the other suspects). Although the San Francisco Police Department did not respond to numerous requests for comment for this story, it should be a simple matter for someone in the cold case division to pull Doerr’s own prints from the Military Service Records Center and do a comparison.
What the fuck? There's an article, and even more so, a book, about this guy, and nobody bother to do this yet?
Important to note that the article doesn't give a source for how they know the bloody fingerprints exist, nor that police haven't tried to find a match. A simple Google result for "Paul Stine fingerprints" suggest they have been heavily analyzed and the term "bloody fingerprints" is misleading as there's only one with a slight trace of blood.
> When the Zodiac killed his last victim, taxi driver Paul Stine, he left behind several bloody fingerprints (which, it should be noted, have never been linked to any of the other suspects). Although the San Francisco Police Department did not respond to numerous requests for comment for this story, it should be a simple matter for someone in the cold case division to pull Doerr’s own prints from the Military Service Records Center and do a comparison.
I mentioned it to show the police in SF evidently have the resources, but their priorities are whack.
They probably just don't care at this point. It's an old cold case and the killer is likely dead at this point. They aren't likely to use any resources on it, even if they're getting tips... unless someone political gets involved due to the high profile.
Imagine you're a detective, and your buddy says "wanna spend 5 minutes trying to solve the Zodiac killer? Looks like we just need to run a print", and you're like "Nah".
Maybe. But it depends on the policies of the department. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a violation to run something if it's not associated with an active case, or a case you're assigned.
Honestly I agree. Looking at my own country most of the cold cases that still receive attention after 20+ years involve children.
If you don't have a DNA sample you're not going to solve a case from that long ago. Eye witness accounts are known to be unreliable, witnesses and detectives dead or suffering from dementia, no camera footage or other electronic trails.
I move that this malopropism be prioritized in the great inevitable eventuality of descriptivism, partly because both forms are equally evocative, but mostly because I admire buns’ smarts.
So you’re saying that there is something extremely simple they San Francisco Police Department can do to solve a crime case, but it just can’t be bothered? That’s just unheard of!
"She suspects that given Paul’s military training, he would never have chosen the .22 caliber pistol, meant for small game, Zodiac used at Lake Herman Road"
Sure, smart people aren't choosing .22s for combat, but as a purely offensive weapon it can be an option. The military has used supressed Ruger .22s for sentry elimination.
I was going to make a similar comment. The .22 pistol is a very traditional weapon for killing someone with a minimum of noise.
While people have the impression that it is for small game, a surprising number of people are in fact murdered with .22. It is effective in the hands of someone that knows how to use it.
Not necessarily. She implied that a military person wouldn't use it because they would know it isn't effective due to a preconceived notion that it is ineffective against a person. That part is flatly false, since some military personnel would be familiar with its effective military use. As other people have mentioned, a suppressed .22 (Beretta, Buckmark, et al) were standard military weapons for covert ops for a long time. Even without suppression, they are pretty quiet as firearms go.
That isn't to say this guy knew how to use it, just that there are some people who could use a .22 pistol to great effect. The use of a .22 doesn't preclude competency with firearms.
The theory in this article is that the guy was about to abuse his daughter to death over an argument about drug use/dating, then changed his mind last minute and went to kill some random youths in a local dating spot instead. If it was an impulsive thing, presumably he didn't necessarily have time to choose the gun-enthusiast optimal weapon.
From the profile, he seems like the type of guy who would have stewed on what gun he would use to kill clandestinely in his free time. I mean he carried a pistol in each pocket on a daily basis.
I think it implies the killer either knew what he was doing, and chose the .22 because it would be quieter, or the killer did not know what he was doing, because the smaller bullet would be less lethal.
.22 is a great choice too if you want to remain quiet. Subsconic .22 rounds + something as simple as an oil filter can make for a ridiculously quiet gun.
I thought the primary reason .22s were undesirable was because rim-fire is unreliable [0], and center-fire necessitates a larger caliber shell simply for packaging reasons.
While generally true, it's mostly a QA issue with mass produced rounds. Even high quality mass produced rounds rarely have this issue (see the Olympics, etc). Even if you did have the issue, it wouldn't be catastrophic since you're using it by surprise and against unarmed targets. As someone else mentioned, they may have carried more than one gun.
They are also unreliable for use in semiautomatic weapons, because they lack consistency in the force needed to eject the casing and chamber a new round.
You don't care much about that if you use ie 10-shot .22 revolver. You can't suppress it that well though.
The other thing is, revolver doesn't leave empty shell around (unless you intentionally throw it away at that place when reloading). Which is good for assassins, but if in this case shell was found (not familiar with the case) then its probably not this.
This is not usually the case. They can be more finicky, but they can also be reliable when properly set up. Any unreliability would be improper ammo selection or a maintenance issue. For example, competition shooter rarely have this issue (High Standards, 10-22, etc).
I can't recall seeing a jam in an ISSF world cup or Olympic rapid fire pistol match. It has probably happened, but definitely not often enough to be a regular appearance. Most competitors are using Pardini SP pistols.
But they are also not shooting Remington Bucket o' Bullets ammo from Wal-Mart. Premium .22 ammo like Eley, SK, or Lapua is far more consistent.
I’ve not read the novel, but there’s a great interview with him on the OtherPpl podcast (actually three interviews, but I only heard the last of them):
But I wonder why the writer didn't ask Paul Doerr's daughter for old letters or other hand-written documents, to compare with the ones sent to the papers, known to be written by the real killer.
This seems as good as any other suspect to me. What would make this more convincing if they could offer a reason as to why he stopped the killings. Was it something in his personal life his daughter could help determine perhaps.
I remain somewhat confused as to how this case isn't considered solved, honestly. Arthur Leigh Allen fits the bill so thoroughly that I'm just baffled by posts like this one.
> Allen again came to police attention in 1971 when his friend Donald Cheney reported to police in Manhattan Beach, California, that Allen had spoken of his desire to kill people, used the name Zodiac, and secured a flashlight to a firearm for visibility at night. According to Cheney, this conversation occurred no later than January 1, 1969.
> The daughter of Paul Doerr for example, talking about how wonderful he could be (you know, when he wasn't torturing her); it's just wild irrationality speaking
Or, you know, it's true, because people have more than one side? It's important to remember this fact about people, or else you'll end up doing what you're accusing these people of doing, which is deciding somebody is innocent because you like them.
edit: I mean, the woman opens up her life to researchers, talks of her abuse by the man, and publicly concludes that her father is probably the Zodiac Killer, but that's still not enough for you not to attack her for thinking her father was wonderful sometimes? How uncharitable.
I believe more people are shot by .22 than any other caliber. I have no source to back that up; it’s just something I’ve always heard from the LEOs in my family.
From my personal experience shooting, it’s the quietest of the rounds given the gun has a closed designed and a decent sized barrel. But at the same time, one of the loudest firearms I own is a .22 revolver simply because everything is exposed and the barrel is so short. It is far louder than almost any larger caliber firearm that I own or have shot.
Here are some older stats on common calibers. The .22 does make the list, but isn't close to the top. It could be different if you include other stats like non-fatal shootings and accidents.
I bet that’s correct if you include accidental shooting - the .22 LR is by far the most common ammunition. And they’re used sometimes to put down animals.
But aside from execution style killings they’re probably not that common, especially among the common criminals.
> He wouldn't have admitted it on his deathbed because he had a living daughter that would have to suffer for his deeds after he was gone.
Except if the circumstance is private between him and his daughter, he could tell her and let her to decide whether to publicize or kept private forever?
Years ago, my daughter was in a college sociology class discussing serial killers. When the Zodiac killer came up, one guy said (according to my daughter, in total seriousness), “I thought Ted Cruz is the Zodiac killer?”
"Please don't pick the most provocative thing in an article or post to complain about in the thread. Find something interesting to respond to instead."
If there's nothing interesting enough to generate a thoughtful response, not posting anything is also fine.
Someone was telling me that the killer’s real identity is
George Hodel, and Hodel’s son wrote a book about it. They seemed to have a lot of good pieces that fit together.
So does this partially vindicate the '80s moral panic - D&D is connected to ritualistic killings, it just happened decades earlier and had nothing to do with what the hysteria claimed it was doing?
Does this circumstantial suggestion that a man was involved in the 1960s zodiac killings partially vindicate the critics of Dungeons & Dragons (first published 1974)?
I’m going to go with “no” and cite “the linear flow of time”.
On the other hand, 1974 is when the killer ceased written communication, according to the Wikipedia article. Kind of macabre, and certainly not evidence, but it would be darkly hilarious if the reason the killer stopped was that he got into D&D. There wouldn't happen to be anyone here who played D&D with Paul Doerr in the 70s?
The Venona papers didn't put McCarthy remotely in the ballpark. It's not as if the premise of Soviet infiltration was controversial; it was universally understood to be happening.
It strikes me as even more tenuous than that because you could just as easily say “ah well there were no zodiac murders post-D&D, so obviously role playing slakes rather than inflames the psychopathic mind” or something.
To be fair, I said "connected", which could mean almost anything- not specifically "caused."
It's interesting that if this Doerr theory is true, that means Zodiac really did resemble pop cultural conceptions of him and other Zodiac-inspired fictional killers: a geek, interested in nerdy fantasy hobbies once considered the province of social misfits. But then again, the occult-steeped tone of the letters and the ciphers themselves already gave that impression.
The obvious coincidence within the coincidence. The firearms are now missing, under uncertain circumstances. The _one_ thing that could definitively prove the link and clear the mystery one way or the other.
Also, the daughter says this would justify her life, which is a baffling statement. A life which apparently included drug problems up until at least 2007.
Sorry, I think the author got baited into a family story he didn't fully work to understand or convey.
I think what the daughter was saying is that the abuse and craziness of her father would, in a sense, give some explanation for her own initially troubled path.
>Also, the daughter says this would justify her life, which is a baffling statement. A life which apparently included drug problems up until at least 2007.
She doesn't say it would justify her life. She says it would validate her telling of her life:
“You know, when people ask you what your life was like, and you just don’t know where to start? This validates it"
In other words, it would corroborate the hurt and abuse and bad upbringing she got from her father.
She might even further mean it that it would help explain to others how she turned the way she is, regarding drugs and such: because she was raised by a loonie psychopath murderer.
But it's also perfectly logical for her to just mean that it will validate her telling of her harsh upbringing to something people can immediately grasp the awfulness of.
It surprises me that the killer could outlive justice and die taking the secret of his identity with him to the grave but it appears that is what has happened.
I read Graysmith's book though a bit skeptically, assuming there was a lot of ginning up by the author to make for a more compelling read. Skeptical too of the Zodiac's claims — I don't believe he committed all the murders he bragged about.
Nonetheless, I couldn't avoid perceiving a sort of psychological wrangling that the murderer might have gone through. As though after a couple of simple shootings, he decides to up the game and try a stabbing. But it seems as though the awkward stabbing experience chills the killer and he perhaps even has second thoughts...
I confess I am drawn by "Zodiac killer identified" headlines for decades now. At first hoping they were zeroing in on a capture, but later, as it becomes more likely he has died of old age, just out of an old curiosity.
This new suspect is compelling. But the comment about "so many nuts in the 60's" rings true as well. This guy could have just been another nut, but not a murderer.