I have my doubts that it will ever launch - the way things are proceeding, they’ll miss October, push to ‘23, and will then end up with parts and systems ageing out due to wear and duty cycles - the rollback to the VAB alone incurs significant wear.
Meanwhile, starship will see its first orbital flight (likely not before a few RUDs) while SLS just grows mould.
That said, the whole purpose of SLS was to provide jobs and to retain technical expertise in the US, which it has achieved - actually launching the thing is almost besides the point.
A lot of work is put into making porn, facebook games, prayer, cigarette manufacturing, the gambling industry etc. I'm not saying these are all useless things, but most people wouldn't bat an eye at someone "discounting" their work. If the work going into SLS doesn't achieve anything, then they discounted the work themselves, no need for a 3rd party.
NASA TV loves to show a great infographic of how many parts have flown to space before and have been reusable... can't help but yell in my mind.. and that's the last time they'll be reusable.
It's not entirely sunk cost - there's reputational effects for a lot of people involved. Politicians who supported it look much worse if all this work (and money) has gone into it, only to have it not launch. How bad they will look is proportional to how much money was spent/work was done, so the work put in does matter to the outcome, at least for them.
That probably shouldn't be the case, but when it comes to politics, perception is very much reality in that people's perceptions translate directly to votes.
What is the point that you're trying to make here?
I'm sure we've all experienced situations where we realize that the work we're being paid to do is futile and will never reach achieve it's intended purpose. It's really demoralizing but the thing to remember in that situation is that you're still getting paid.
Would you rather be an aeronautical engineer who gets paid and doesn't launch of a rocket, or an aeronautical engineer who doesn't get paid and doesn't launch a rocket?
Note: neither Booster 7, nor Booster 8, or Ship 20 and 24 for that matter, are even close to being anything that could be considered "Starship" by even the most generous observer.
Even if B7/S24 do launch in a test flight they are so far removed from anything that could potentially be in the far future an operational and usable spacecraft that they resemble "starship" the same way a wooden mockup of an airplane resembles an actual airplane.
An object being the same general shape and dimensions of something doesn't make that object the "something".
At least SLS exists and has problems that can be, perhaps, probably at tremendous expense, fixed.
In 20 years, I've seen SpaceX start from scratch and develop and launch the Falcon 1, Falcon 9, and Falcon Heavy, and nail propulsive landings on Earth.
Since it's members joined forces to form ULA 15 years ago, I've watched them launch the same machines they've been using since 2002.
I have a lot more faith that SpaceX will launch something new than that ULA will get anything done.
How much is B7/S24 missing compared to an operational vehicle?
Artemis 1 doesn't have the configuration of a fully operational vehicle either. Artemis 1's Orion doesn't have a fully functioning life support system, launch abort system, or docking system – and probably is missing other components too.
To compare apples to apples – SLS (without Orion), to just the components of Starship/SuperHeavy which form part of launch vehicle proper (as opposed to payload) – what is Starship/SuperHeavy actually missing?
Back in 2016, Musk was talking about landing a Crew Dragon capsule on Mars, albeit with no crew on it.
His original 2018 timeline was likely over ambitious, but SpaceX probably could have achieved it by now – if they'd stuck with their plan to do it. By all accounts, it was abandoned, not because of any technical or financial obstacles, but simply because they decided to redirect their resources towards a far more ambitious alternative (Starship).
I think landing an uncrewed Starship on Mars has a fair likelihood of actually happening, before this decade is over.
SpaceX could absolutely launch a mars mission with their existing rocket platforms and launch infrastructure.
It would be tedious launching little pieces of a larger ship and assembling them in orbit but it could absolutely be done.
Instead of doing that they're choosing to build better, bigger rockets, and more infrastructure to make the eventual launches to mars more cost-effective and substantial.
> SpaceX could absolutely launch a mars mission with their existing rocket platforms and launch infrastructure.
Which highlights the major difference between public and private sector exploration. SpaceX killing everyone on their first attempt is a tragedy and they quickly move on, NASA doing it is a 10 year halt to any further work until a full public investigation takes place.
It's a big complex project that legislators decreed should re-use ancient engines and structural components from the shuttle - a project that was the world's first space-faring barrel of pork, infamous for its operating expenditures.
One of the arguments for doing so was that the engines were "proven."
checks news story
Oh hey, it's the engines that are causing these delays.
NASA has been so over-budget on the project, they had to commit accounting fraud to try and cover it up.
"Multiple troubleshooting efforts to address the area of the leak by reseating a seal in the quick disconnect where liquid hydrogen is fed into the rocket did not fix the issue"
Meanwhile, starship will see its first orbital flight (likely not before a few RUDs) while SLS just grows mould.
That said, the whole purpose of SLS was to provide jobs and to retain technical expertise in the US, which it has achieved - actually launching the thing is almost besides the point.