> I think one of the challenge with relying on academics of History or anthropology is that, unlike physics, consensus doesn’t necessarily progress towards a more accurate interpretation.
I think this statement needs some very strong evidence to be even considered in passing. This statement is essentially saying "the entire field is bad at their job".
For individual academics and sources, yes, I agree that one should be vigilant. But the academic consensus is a different matter altogether, and the base assumption simply has to be that the field as a whole moves forward. Otherwise it becomes very difficult - maybe even impossible - to have any sort of evidence-based discussion.
My undergraduate degree was in history from a top 10 university. Only say this to illustrate that I respect and love history. I thought I was going to become a historian. That said, the field has practical limits not faced by the hard sciences. You can’t test or prove your theories in History and many other humanities/social science. The best you can do is provide evidence that an event occurred. It’s the inherent limits of the field. How do you conclusively prove the cause of the French Revolution or the reasons the Japanese surrendered in WWII?
So how can you validate that any reinterpretation is forward progress and not just a change?
> the base assumption simply has to be that the field as a whole moves forward. Otherwise it becomes very difficult - maybe even impossible - to have any sort of evidence-based discussion.
It seems like this "assumption" needs to be qualified with time scales for disambiguating trends from "facts" .. otherwise this is equivalent to saying that academic consensus can never be wrong
> otherwise this is equivalent to saying that academic consensus can never be wrong
No it is not. I said that the assumption must be that the consensus becomes less wrong over time, not that it is never wrong. Those are two very different statements.
Well, academic consensus usually takes a long time to build. And obviously it can take wrong turns (and there are plenty of examples of that historically, often due to work based on incomplete or wrong data - though arguably even if the academic consensus has been wrong on an absolute basis, it has often been "correct" in light of the available evidence).
But nevertheless, it should be obvious today that (probabilistically) the best understanding of the world - for laymen - is achieved by trusting the academic consensus. Anything else quickly veers into anti-intellectual, conspirationist mumbo-jumbo.
> the base assumption simply has to be that the field as a whole moves forward.
Nature doesn't care what anyone thinks our base assumptions have to be. Parapsychology had a decent run academically for a century, and still isn't quite dead.
I think this statement needs some very strong evidence to be even considered in passing. This statement is essentially saying "the entire field is bad at their job".
For individual academics and sources, yes, I agree that one should be vigilant. But the academic consensus is a different matter altogether, and the base assumption simply has to be that the field as a whole moves forward. Otherwise it becomes very difficult - maybe even impossible - to have any sort of evidence-based discussion.