I have to admit, I did not expect them to be able to weather a crash like the recent one, and I've mentally upgraded Tether from 'could go at any moment and take the crypto market with it' to 'will need some good reason to tank, and likely be only one of the later dominos to fall'.
That doesn't mean I think of Tether as an asset to put much trust in, since I still expect there to be quite some shenanigans at work in the background, but it seems they've at least built their empire on more solid ground than many people expected.
If you want to follow this, the thing to watch is the USDT market cap. It fell from $83B to $66B, then climbed to $67.5B. As long as it's not making new lows (i.e. people redeeming their USDT for USD), the chances of failure are basically 0. If it does start dropping lower, that's when people will start getting nervous again.
As with all of these things it’s about confidence.
If there is another wobble, and significant redemptions, any hint that they aren’t going to be fulfilled will cause a run. At which point the whole house of cards will fall, if as seems likely they don’t have the $67.5B in the bank.
That doesn't mean I think of Tether as an asset to put much trust in, since I still expect there to be quite some shenanigans at work in the background, but it seems they've at least built their empire on more solid ground than many people expected.