Fair enough. I acknowledge, nothing is certain in any market. But with that said I simply struggle to understand who isn't convinced that VR is the future of computing. It's currently in it's infancy from a technology standpoint, and even then is loads of fun. There's a huge upside, tons of potential, and a giant company going ALL IN to make it happen.
The reason I'm not convinced (anymore): humans are incredibly good at abstracting things. We don't need extremely high fidelity or realism to understand concepts, or interact with an environment. I am transmitting ideas from my brain to yours, right now, via text. Text. That's how good we are. As such, once the wow factor wears off, VR's downsides start to overwhelm the upsides. VR sickness is still a thing. Discomfort and heat. Isolation from the world.
If I'm right, you'd expect a lot of crazy good demos, and then usage to fall off over time. This is the exact thing you see in user data.
If you had to describe the value proposition of VR - what is it? "It's just really cool" isn't as compelling as I once thought.
Does the "wow" factor wear off and leave too little benefit to overcome the downsides? Yes, for a lot of people that is the case. I've witnessed it in many of my friends who I convinced to get a VR headset, absolutely sure that it would become their main source of gaming, only to see them barely use it outside of a couple games for a couple hours a week. Some of that is due to the lack of good content, but some of it is inherent to the discomfort and difficulty "getting into" VR.
I'm an outlier I guess. Much of what VR offers syncs with my life now. I don't play competitive multiplayer games as much as I used to. I'm starting to prefer longer form and immersive content. Single player games are actually enjoyable and not completely boring, when in VR. Gaming sessions are naturally time boxed, due to issues of eye strain and general discomfort in VR. I don't want to game for hours on end anymore and VR provides a natural mechanism for that. 1-2 hours a day, and I'm good.
But those are fairly unique attributes and qualities to be looking for in a gaming platform and definitely do not represent what traditional gamers are attracted to. There remains an enormous swath of young men (and increasingly women) who want ultra competitive and comfortable gaming which provides boundless opportunity to sit and consume. VR likely struggles for another simple reason which is most people's tolerance to simply stand for more than an hour is quite small.
All of that said ... I still think this its early and there's enough benefit in VR that I have a very hard time seeing it going away completely. It might never catch on as a gaming platform, but for seated content like work, I could see it being a great solution if / when the technology improves.
