"Please note that in accordance with the license agreement between VMS Software Inc. and HPE, VMS Software Inc. are not able to distribute VAX licenses."

Is it because they can't distribute licenses for non-VSI versions of OpenVMS? Depending on their license agreement maybe VSI can do new VAX releases, but since OpenVMS VAX system still kicking are running at best a 20 years old release that's been out of support for a decade, even if that's the case they probably think it's not worth the hassle.

Yes I believe that is basically it, their deal with HPE says they can only issue licenses for OpenVMS on VAX if they create a VSI OpenVMS on VAX release, but it is commercially unviable for them to do so – there is no way there are a sufficient number of customers willing to pay a sufficient amount of $$$ to make it worthwhile. Very few people use OpenVMS on VAX in production any more. I think, if it survives anywhere, it would likely be in embedded / industrial control applications – some MicroVAX in a factory somewhere running an ancient VMS version, controlling some machinery – but why would someone want to pay to upgrade such a system to a newer VMS version? They'd get nothing out of it and it would risk breaking things.

Putting that aside, I think a VAX release is also technically much more challenging than Alpha/Itanium was. From what I've heard, the VAX release used different (older) build tools, etc, and even if HPE or VSI still has the source, it would be quite an effort to work out even how to compile it all. By contrast, HPE was still building new Alpha/Itanium versions internally at the time it started to transition to VSI, so it was just transitioning a currently active process to another organisation, as opposed to resurrecting something which hadn't been actively done in many years.

I would assume VAX licenses refers to the VAX not x86 version.