> I think the mRNA vaccines are a tremendous marvel and our best tool for defending ourselves from COVID. But they are not a panacea, and we cannot build trust in them by demanding it.
But I think the aviation analogy has to be pushed a lot farther for it to be relevant to COVID vaccines, and the analogy stops making sense well before that. The main differences would seem to be:
- Unlike heavier-than-air powered aircraft in 1905, COVID vaccines in 2021/2022 are effective, and probably crucial at fighting a pandemic which has killed a very large number of people and otherwise impacted many more.
- The mechanisms by which mRNA vaccines work are basically mRNA translation (making proteins) which has been known about for 50 years or so and is well understood (I think, though I'm not an expert), and protein subunit vaccination, which is also well understood, and in fact already in widespread use.
- Vaccination is (if I understand correctly), not only useful for an individual, but also useful for the population if vaccination rates are sufficiently high. There is therefore a valid public health reason to encourage high vaccination rates.
- The United States government has not made vaccination mandatory in general, it has made it mandatory in certain (admitedly quite broad) circumstances. More importantly perhaps, mRNA vaccination in particular has never been mandated (as far as I know), so people who would rather get a different type of vaccine (e.g. an adenovirus vector vaccine) can do so, to the extent that supplies are available.
- I don't believe that the US government has suppressed discussion of the risks of mRNA vaccination (which are pretty clearly much lower than the risks of not being vaccinated in nearly all cases). Depending on which online/social echo chambers one prefers to inhabit, there has likely been some suppression of discussion due to groupthink or something similar.
I don't believe that there is an analogy with aviation that captures all of these, or even just the important ones, but it seems pretty clear that using airplane airworthiness as en example of how most people are happy to outsource most risk analysis to experts most of the time is reasonable, but using early aviation technology as a detailed analogy to mRNA vaccine development and application in response to COVID is not likely to be useful.
