The invasion itself is a bit insane. In winter? An invasion? The preparations look slapshod, the troop morale of the invaders seems to be low to begin with. It doesn't reek of desperation, since there was no imminent threat to Moscow. It seems like insanity, or worse, dementia.
Putin is a strongman, a narcissist, a sociopath. He cares not for the fate of this world. He may have terminal cancer (speculation, a possible reason the invasion seems rushed and ill-timed). Some men just want to see the world burn.
Putin may be cornered. What is the endgame of this invasion? Humiliation is the minimum. A sign of weakness where he is deposed and likely assassinated in the process. A NATO or EU member Ukraine with a well-armed and seasoned populace (probably several million Ukrainians are training to be soldiers, and are very motivated to be good soldiers) that HATES you, and only about 300 miles of distance.
Putin has lost this war already it seems. This nutso strategy seems to only work if he assumed all of Ukraine would lay down for his forces like Crimea. That's not happening, and there will be drones, TOW missles, MANPADS, and more arms flooding in from bordering NATO countries to arm and help the Ukrainians.
Putin is paranoid of NATO/EU encroachment into his sphere. This was supposed to be his grand rebuke / riposte to the gradual incursion into his sphere of influence.
But now it has failed badly, and from Putin's standpoint, strengthens the West's hold on Ukraine, buttresses the regime, motivates the populace.
That leaves Belarus as the only buffer/border state, and they invaded Ukraine, and have a despot that likely can be easily deposed with NATO/EU allies to the north, south, and west. Belarus has invaded Ukraine too, so Ukraine has a casus belli to counterinvade them.
Putin isn't Russia and he isn't his armed forces, and he doesn't press the buttons himself. There's a command and control system in Russia and those generals will need to give the orders to destroy the world, and they'll understand what it means to give those orders. Some of them will be currently in talks to Russian oligarchs about the situation in Russia who will not be pleased by any of this. Russians don't have a problem with military coups taking out their leaders.
Your logic only makes sense if Putin literally is Russia and that's the foreign policy mistake that most Americans always make by characterizing states strictly and only by cults of personality around their rulers and forgetting that there's other people in those countries.
At some point if Putin starts ranting that he's going to nuke NATO then he's going to get overthrown.
There's still a logic around this whole situation, and all the participants in the game, including all of Putin's generals and every powerful Russian, understands that logic.
(Also I strongly doubt anyone here is qualified to diagnose Putin as having dementia and I don't think he is -- he's making massive strategic mistakes, but that just indicates he's been smoking too much of his own information bubble for way too long)
I have been reading non-US sources that have observed that Putin has superficially declined in health and there are rumors that he is in poor health.
I agree the Putin is "not Russia", but he is a strongman, and Russia has a history of very strong autocrats. I really hope you are right about the Russian military and those officers in charge of the nuclear armament.
We'll see, this will be a fascinating chapter of post-Cold-War history.
The invasion itself is a bit insane. In winter? An invasion? The preparations look slapshod, the troop morale of the invaders seems to be low to begin with. It doesn't reek of desperation, since there was no imminent threat to Moscow. It seems like insanity, or worse, dementia.
Putin is a strongman, a narcissist, a sociopath. He cares not for the fate of this world. He may have terminal cancer (speculation, a possible reason the invasion seems rushed and ill-timed). Some men just want to see the world burn.
Putin may be cornered. What is the endgame of this invasion? Humiliation is the minimum. A sign of weakness where he is deposed and likely assassinated in the process. A NATO or EU member Ukraine with a well-armed and seasoned populace (probably several million Ukrainians are training to be soldiers, and are very motivated to be good soldiers) that HATES you, and only about 300 miles of distance.
Putin has lost this war already it seems. This nutso strategy seems to only work if he assumed all of Ukraine would lay down for his forces like Crimea. That's not happening, and there will be drones, TOW missles, MANPADS, and more arms flooding in from bordering NATO countries to arm and help the Ukrainians.
Putin is paranoid of NATO/EU encroachment into his sphere. This was supposed to be his grand rebuke / riposte to the gradual incursion into his sphere of influence.
But now it has failed badly, and from Putin's standpoint, strengthens the West's hold on Ukraine, buttresses the regime, motivates the populace.
That leaves Belarus as the only buffer/border state, and they invaded Ukraine, and have a despot that likely can be easily deposed with NATO/EU allies to the north, south, and west. Belarus has invaded Ukraine too, so Ukraine has a casus belli to counterinvade them.