There are a few reasons I say this. At first, I wasn't sure whether it was just propaganda or reality.
The reality is, Russia has failed to take any objectives. It does take time to move through urban centers -- but that's exactly the wrong thing to do. The correct decision would be to destroy Ukraine's air force, and then move in. That didn't happen.
So when the Russians moved in, they discovered that their supply lines were extraordinarily vulnerable. There are several videos circulating of Russian convoys being out of gas. Again, I was suspicious it was propaganda.
What changed my mind is the fact that even Ukraine's internet is still up. Not only is Russia failing to take objectives, but they're failing to even damage Ukrainian infrastructure.
Combine that with a Ukrainian leader who is a hero (in the classic Greek sense), and Putin is facing a stiff headwind.
It's too early to tell. The next several days will be key. But it no longer feels impossible for Ukraine to win -- which implies that Russia would therefore be in the process of losing.
That all assumes he's trying to invade and take over Ukraine, which I don't think is the case at all. Hence why they're not destroying the air force, internet and other civilian infrastructure.
One hypothesis making the rounds on Twitter is that Putin’s bombing campaign was targeting US funded biolabs in Ukraine [0][1] which the Russians have previously complained about [2]
I agree, bombing labs from the air doesn't warrant boots on the ground, so it's obviously not the full explanation. I shared the hypothesis because grandparent comment asked what other reason there could be - this was one.
They don’t want to destroy Ukraine. They want to make it a puppet state that they can extract value from economically. Smashing everything is counterproductive if that is your goal.
The reality is, Russia has failed to take any objectives. It does take time to move through urban centers -- but that's exactly the wrong thing to do. The correct decision would be to destroy Ukraine's air force, and then move in. That didn't happen.
So when the Russians moved in, they discovered that their supply lines were extraordinarily vulnerable. There are several videos circulating of Russian convoys being out of gas. Again, I was suspicious it was propaganda.
What changed my mind is the fact that even Ukraine's internet is still up. Not only is Russia failing to take objectives, but they're failing to even damage Ukrainian infrastructure.
Combine that with a Ukrainian leader who is a hero (in the classic Greek sense), and Putin is facing a stiff headwind.
It's too early to tell. The next several days will be key. But it no longer feels impossible for Ukraine to win -- which implies that Russia would therefore be in the process of losing.
Some references:
https://twitter.com/IntuitMachine/status/1497328895577796618 A column of destroyed Russian vehicles
https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/14973041438364549... An analysis of why victory isn't out of the question