I've seen it as well. My guess is that Covid made a huge dent (Low gas prices and economic problems). Putin has to direct this anger somewhere.
This is the swan song of the Russian state. People living in the Soviet sphere see how other countries are developing. Ukraine had a higher GDP per capita than Poland - now it's 4x lower. It's true for every single place from Kaliningrad, Caucasus to Vladivostok. They are worse off than their neighbours for purely political reasons.
Only thing that holds everything together is the authoritarian regime with strong military and natural resources. The problem is the world will become less dependent on fossil fuels and mining in Siberia is more expensive than pretty much everywhere. Russia won't be able to pay for the army.
This is an existential threat to the Russian state. My prediction is that around 2030 there will a civil war, 2nd Chechnya.
it's not about covid or money - its about Ukraine becoming stronger, more independent than ever from russian influence as old corrupt politicians are getting off their political power so he no longer have a leverage over Ukrainian government the way he used to have
its about the choice Ukranian ppl made in 2014 and strong independent Ukraine is a direct threat to russian kleptocracy as russain ppl might have ideas they could make this push too
Putin desperately had to be seen, in Russia, as doing something that seemed to indicate strength, in order to be able to retain power. Facing off against NATO, and getting them to offer him concessions, served that purpose. Invading another country served that purpose. Holding bits of Ukraine, and the fates of people in them, are very much incidental. The concessions were not necessary, but the offers of concessions were all-important.
I've seen it as well. My guess is that Covid made a huge dent (Low gas prices and economic problems). Putin has to direct this anger somewhere.
This is the swan song of the Russian state. People living in the Soviet sphere see how other countries are developing. Ukraine had a higher GDP per capita than Poland - now it's 4x lower. It's true for every single place from Kaliningrad, Caucasus to Vladivostok. They are worse off than their neighbours for purely political reasons.
Only thing that holds everything together is the authoritarian regime with strong military and natural resources. The problem is the world will become less dependent on fossil fuels and mining in Siberia is more expensive than pretty much everywhere. Russia won't be able to pay for the army.
This is an existential threat to the Russian state. My prediction is that around 2030 there will a civil war, 2nd Chechnya.