I'm just not ready to bet against Apple. I think we're at the point where the only way for anyone to take any significant chunk of profit from Apple's [growing] core business, is for Apple to have a couple significant missteps.
There's no reason to think Android tablets wont overtake the iPad in future. However, the key difference between the tablet and smartphone spaces is that the masses recognise there are smartphones other than the iPhone.
Apple created the tablet market, and consumers know it. The iPhone had a big impact on the smartphone market, but it didn't create it.
Apple earned itself 6-12 months of 100% ownership of the tablet market. People don't yet understand that there are any tablets apart from the iPad. Or, if they do, there will be a belief that the Android tablets are crap because they know that they're just following the success of the iPad.
I think it will take another two or three years before we start seeing tablets become a commodity, as the market begins to recognise the other tablets out there. Or, if this Amazon tablet is a success, then they might be a commodity by next Christmas :)
> "There's no reason to think Android tablets wont overtake the iPad in future."
Except that Android devices never went anywhere as media players. Nothing did, compared to the iPod. Even well after they were seen as a commodity and certainly not for lack of awareness of non-iPod competitors.
And the iPad is loved/used as much more of a big media player than a big phone.
So while Android devices certainly may overtake the iPad, the iPod market presents a great argument that they very well might not. At least not until an OEM puts some serious thought and consideration into the media experience.
I agree..and at that point, Apple might be on the verge of defining an entire product category, which the rest of the market will follow 3+ years thereafter.
I have no doubt that at some point they'll slow down..but like I said in my OP, I'm not ready to bet against them yet.
I can attest that HN and Reddit Programming readership use iDevices at twice the rate they use Android devices, based on a sample size of 30,000 this weekend.
This didn't surprise me in the least. The people I know who use Android are either the people who can't afford iPhones (and kick up a huge fuss about paying for any content) or people who love tinkering with them.
...how is that relevant, though? Android phones are outselling iPhones. What the HN/Reddit crowd does isn't really very relevant to the rest of the world.
humm..it's a bit like saying that your chance of building a successful search engine, without Google first doing something incredibly stupid, are pretty slim.
There's a billion precedents. GM, 3dfx, pre-tick-tock Intel, George Lucas.
The problem with going up against Google is that they offer a superior product to end-users for free. I have no doubt that the iPad will remain a superior product to the Amazon Tablet. However, I also have no doubt it will keep costing more than the Amazon tablet. Consumers care about that extra ~$250.
Like Google, the iPad is currently the low-end and the high-end of the market, but unlike Google, it's vulnerable on the low-end. That's where Amazon will attack it and with ~100 million customers, their credit card numbers ready to go, good brand-loyalty, a huge content store, and so much experience in on-line/cloud services that even Apple uses them, they'll likely have quite a bit of success.
Notice that in my OP, I said "take any significant chunk of _profit_". I'm not as concerned about marketshare as I am about profit. Yes, Android devices are outselling iPhones, but they are generating considerably less profit.
I don't know the latest figures, but iPhones relatively small market share accounted for over 50% of profits last time I saw. Amazon might sell a lot of cheap tablets, but that won't hurt Apple's profits.
Apple don't have a relatively small market share in smartphones. Asymco likes to quote the mobile phone, not the smartphone numbers to make this stat sound more impressive than it is.
If you do that then it's something like 4% of unit sales share giving 50% of profit. If you exclude people selling millions of throwaway cellphones for pennies and only include HTC, RIM and the smartphone parts of Nokia, Samsung etc. then the profit they make (while still better than the industry average, thanks to RIM and Nokia pulling it down) is much more closely tied to market share and therefore seems much more under threat as Android advances on that front.
None of those missteps are on their core products. I'm talking something like Xbox 360's 33% failure rate (which doesn't even seem to have damaged their brand at all, surprisingly).
At this point, their brand is so strong, you'd need something huge...I can't even think of anything besides serious failure rates on iPhones or iPads.
Apple TV is doing well for a "hobby" compared to Google TV. and Ping's failure is not hurting Apple at all. Amazon however, does not nearly have as much cash and resources as Apple or Google. if Amazon fails in this it can potentially hurt their bottom line.
