Intuitively, I think I get a different sense of the HN demographic. It's one thing to say that the brightest aren't going to medical school. It's another thing to say that the best and brightest aren't even going to college.

I might argue that going to college is no longer necessary for the purpose of learning, because the material is so widely available. Even though I think that's true (for some fields), I still wouldn't advise people not to go to college because of the signaling problem (which one then has to sidestep by starting their own business or by contributing impressively in open source, etc).

I get hyperbole for the purpose of making a point, but if you go too far, you come off sounding a bit incredible.

Have you seen a typical medical school class recently? The people getting in these days is almost shocking. I have a hard time believing that qualified people are being shut out of admission.

Yes? I mean, I am a medical student, and I'm routinely impressed by my peers. But I'm not trying to claim that my peers are better than their predecessors. I'm just doubting your assertion that medical students now are worse than before. The null hypothesis certainly is that things are the same as they always were.