The issue is these techniques are growing in capabilities exponentially, while we have a habit of extrapolating linearly. Some saw the glaring deficits in copilot then reasoned that linear improvements is still glaring deficits. I don't know that this bias can ever be corrected. A large number of intelligent people simply will never be convinced general AI is coming soon no matter what evidence is presented.
> techniques are growing in capabilities exponentially, while we have a habit of extrapolating linearly
What does this even mean? How do you put a number on AI capability? You can say it is growing faster than people expect, but what is even exponential or linear growth in AI capability?
I take your point that the linear/exponential terminology is a bit dubious. But the simple way to make sense of it is just going by various benchmarks. E.g. the power-law relationship between the model accuracy and the model size: https://eliaszwang.com/paper-reviews/scaling-laws-neural-lm/
