I don't know the answer, I never invest in south america so I haven't really checked. So let's look together.
Inflation seems to have been a problem since around 2002. From 2006 to 2015 it was kind of stable but bad. The currency then dropped out.
GDP across that entire period seems collapsed. They constantly are dipping into recessions. Their manufacturing industry seems to be in decline since ~2012. Agriculture is suspiciously flat. Mining is in decline for that entire period. Seems to be whole economy collapse to me.
Labour participation rate is steady around 45% suggesting not much tinkering with employment numbers. Which looks also steady about 42%. Unemployment is pretty steady from about 2006 to present around 6-8%. So their productivity is poor. They'll very likely always be a second world country. What a sad outlook.
Central bank balance sheets are all the rave, they only go back to 2012. It looks as bad as any other country as of late.
Money supply is sky high. They probably have ~300-600% inflation locked in here. Holy.
Interest rates are in the 40-80% ranges? But real yields are negative for sure. You cant save a dime in this environment.
Balance of trade is good since 2019 or so, but that probably lines up well with collapse of their economy. Probably means poverty on the rise bigtime? Otherwise has been bad for years and has been in decline in scope.
Tourism died long before covid. Roughly in 2016 something happened to kill their tourism industry.
Government credit rating is trash. Yet government debt is rising.
Argentina's military spending had been bad since the 1990s.
No surprise to see their economic competitiveness is nearly lowest ranked in the world.
household debt to gdp? Argentina has no household debt? You cant get a mortgage at 40%+ interest rates. Therefore you cant have debt. Their people have no debt and they are sitll in collapse?
Corporate tax rate is recently down from an outrageous 35% to a slightly less outrageous 25%. Personal tax is 35%, Sales tax at 21%. So a total tax burden of easily well over 80%. Argentinian people work for the government at least 80% of the year. Does the government provide 80% back in services and goods? I highly doubt that very much.
Since the problem has been ongoing so long. Politically it can't be solved. I must admit I know nothing about their politicians but if I were to shoot from the hip, their current leadership is not ideologically aligned with fixing it.
So easy prediction without crystal ball? They have at least 3 more years of absolute collapse. We're talking probably 20% of people will enter poverty before this ends. It's going to be very bad for the argentinian folks.
> From 2006 to 2015 it was kind of stable but bad.
Just an FYI, the government at that time (which is the current government) fudged the official inflation numbers to pay less interest and to say there was no inflation, so if your inflation numbers are from official sources for that period, they are not true, inflation increased every year since 2002.
>Just an FYI, the government at that time (which is the current government) fudged the official inflation numbers to pay less interest and to say there was no inflation, so if your inflation numbers are from official sources for that period, they are not true, inflation increased every year since 2002.
From the numbers it doesn't suggest Greece levels of fudging. There was a few cases where it looke suspicious to be sure. Given the constant dipping into recession. They probably couldn't fudge it as muchas they please.
Like they are obviously proposing some good options, but they didnt do anything near necessary between 2015 and 2019 and then lost the next election?
Is there any talks of revolution? Probably would have the be violent. Frankly a worse situation than the seemingly ineffective government you have.
If I were to make a suggestion, the world is large. You can move to a country that isn't going to be so broken for the foreseeable future. The move will be painful, but its an investment in yourself and your family.
Given that large businesses are taxed and impeded to hell and employees are taxed to the bone, is there any leg up for those running a single man sole proprietorship running business informally? As a total outsider I feel like there's a special niche area left for 1 man run-his-own-business opportunities to make a living here by exploiting the structural problems that weaken the marketability of larger business.
Inflation seems to have been a problem since around 2002. From 2006 to 2015 it was kind of stable but bad. The currency then dropped out.
GDP across that entire period seems collapsed. They constantly are dipping into recessions. Their manufacturing industry seems to be in decline since ~2012. Agriculture is suspiciously flat. Mining is in decline for that entire period. Seems to be whole economy collapse to me.
Labour participation rate is steady around 45% suggesting not much tinkering with employment numbers. Which looks also steady about 42%. Unemployment is pretty steady from about 2006 to present around 6-8%. So their productivity is poor. They'll very likely always be a second world country. What a sad outlook.
Central bank balance sheets are all the rave, they only go back to 2012. It looks as bad as any other country as of late.
Money supply is sky high. They probably have ~300-600% inflation locked in here. Holy.
Interest rates are in the 40-80% ranges? But real yields are negative for sure. You cant save a dime in this environment.
Balance of trade is good since 2019 or so, but that probably lines up well with collapse of their economy. Probably means poverty on the rise bigtime? Otherwise has been bad for years and has been in decline in scope.
Tourism died long before covid. Roughly in 2016 something happened to kill their tourism industry.
Government credit rating is trash. Yet government debt is rising.
Argentina's military spending had been bad since the 1990s.
No surprise to see their economic competitiveness is nearly lowest ranked in the world.
household debt to gdp? Argentina has no household debt? You cant get a mortgage at 40%+ interest rates. Therefore you cant have debt. Their people have no debt and they are sitll in collapse?
Corporate tax rate is recently down from an outrageous 35% to a slightly less outrageous 25%. Personal tax is 35%, Sales tax at 21%. So a total tax burden of easily well over 80%. Argentinian people work for the government at least 80% of the year. Does the government provide 80% back in services and goods? I highly doubt that very much.
Since the problem has been ongoing so long. Politically it can't be solved. I must admit I know nothing about their politicians but if I were to shoot from the hip, their current leadership is not ideologically aligned with fixing it.
So easy prediction without crystal ball? They have at least 3 more years of absolute collapse. We're talking probably 20% of people will enter poverty before this ends. It's going to be very bad for the argentinian folks.