"I don't see how you possibly could make any guesses "
Really?
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Okay. Let's try it again.
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Looks to me like guessing is a pretty easy thing to do. Perhaps you were looking for some kind of formula? As if a piece of math would make you more comfortable about even 5 years from now?
I think you're taking the underlying logic to the singularity a little too literally. It's all general trends with general statements to back them up. Wonderful piece of speculation, which I agree with. But it ain't science. It ain't logic. Kurzweil just speculates using a lot of mathematics. I grok it. But I'm not selling my house to buy a bunch of EverReady batteries to power my nanobot Zoot suit any time soon.
What I said:
"I don't see how you possibly could make any guesses about the state of the world so far into the future."
You quoted as:
"I don't see how you possibly could make any guesses "
Not the same...Try to keep an honest debate, shall we?
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No on the contrary I am not taking it literally but with a big grain of salt.
Of couse there is guessing. But there are educated guesses and blurbs.
Your guess is pointless, it has no validity at all. You could just as well say "blahaba" because it is not based on anything(at least it doesn't seem to be).
It's a guess. There is nothing to debate. And no, it's not just noise. It's a guess. We all guess. Come on, you can guess too. Just try it. It's fun.
If I had wanted to give an educated guess, I'd say so (And anybody who tells you they can give you an educated guess about decades in the future is guilty of first-degree BS) I'm very happy with guessing about things. I like guessing, and I plan to continue guessing as much as possible in the future. It is not pointless or a waste of time. I like it.
You just mean it is a hell of a lot longer than 20-30 years before we are there?