1) exponential growth has consistently ceased before the hospitals overflowed too bad
2) exponential growth confuses readers into thinking that a small boost in spread rate means many more will be infected. This isn’t true because the exponential phase is brief and is a progression towards a ceiling defined by the graph, not an arbitrary period of time. Like what we are seeing in South Africa right now.
The big problem is that people think an increase in the spreading rate will cause an exponentially higher number of infected. But it won’t. The model is not appropriate.
That's fair, yes. High exponential growth rates make the system much harder to control though, and will easily overshoot the 'set point' (maximal hospital capacity). At a 2-3 day doubling time that overshoot could look pretty drastic.
1) exponential growth has consistently ceased before the hospitals overflowed too bad
2) exponential growth confuses readers into thinking that a small boost in spread rate means many more will be infected. This isn’t true because the exponential phase is brief and is a progression towards a ceiling defined by the graph, not an arbitrary period of time. Like what we are seeing in South Africa right now.
The big problem is that people think an increase in the spreading rate will cause an exponentially higher number of infected. But it won’t. The model is not appropriate.