> I've hired hundreds of people and this is just not true. A first impression matters a bit, sure - but it has hardly any effect on the decision.
The thing about confirmation biases are that they are at the subconscious level and you likely wouldn't be able to detect them. It's possible that you have an impartial and immune to confirmation bias interview process, but it's also possible that you are indeed deciding (skewing) most of your interviews in the first several seconds.
> Hiring is literally the most important job a manager has in any fast growing company. It should be taken very seriously and systematically
I agree. Which is why, if it is found that hiring committees are more effective, and your company isn't using them, then are you taking them seriously? The same with bonuses and promotions. These should not be decided by a single person (manager).
> it's also possible that you are indeed deciding (skewing) most of your interviews in the first several seconds.
Not the original commenter, but I've had interviews where I was feeling pretty negative about a candidate in the first 5-10 minutes, but ultimately recommended them (sometimes even quite enthusiastically).
Given that empirical evidence to the contrary, it seems like a pretty incredible claim to insist that I'm deciding primarily based on the first few seconds. Do you actually have anything to back up your claim? That would suggest that, for instance, performance on a coding exercise has absolutely no bearing on my recommendation, since it usually takes a few minutes to get the coding rolling.
A confirmation bias is not a conclusion, it's a skewing/filtering of how you see something. Read the book "A Thousand Brains" by Jeff Hawkins. The way your brain works fundamentally is that it makes predictions and assumes that the prediction is what will happen (the book explains this better). That's why in my original comment I said " Of course with an amazing interview performance you can switch a predetermined no into a yes, and with a very poor interview you can turn a predetermined yes into a no."
The thing about confirmation biases are that they are at the subconscious level and you likely wouldn't be able to detect them. It's possible that you have an impartial and immune to confirmation bias interview process, but it's also possible that you are indeed deciding (skewing) most of your interviews in the first several seconds.
> Hiring is literally the most important job a manager has in any fast growing company. It should be taken very seriously and systematically
I agree. Which is why, if it is found that hiring committees are more effective, and your company isn't using them, then are you taking them seriously? The same with bonuses and promotions. These should not be decided by a single person (manager).