The UK is releasing good stats on vaccinated/non-vaccinated outcomes that are thankfully broken down by age groups [0], since comparing an un-vaccinated 20 year old to a vaccinated 90 year old is extremely different. Overall it seems that the vaccinated cohort are contracting COVID at a higher rate per capita, while having lower hospitalization and morbidity rates than the unvaccinated once they are sick. The higher illness rate is surprising though and one reason the stats have raised some eyebrows in the UK government. [1]
Some people will have issues with the commentary on this blog. I'm posting it in reference to these UK statistics because it's the only place I've seen the tabular data visualized, if you want to examine the raw UK government data yourself it's linked through from the blog.
Normally I would think that perhaps the behaviours of the vaccinated group differ from the unvaccinated and therefore affecting their risk profiles (ex. vax going out more, seeing other people), however, I don't think that is the case. Those that are unvaccinated are in that state by choice, and therefore they are unlikely to be unvaccinated and abstaining from risky behaviours.
I wonder if the willingness to get tested might have something to do with it. If you are unvaccinated and sick, do you go get tested knowing that you'll have to face the onslaught of "told you so"... "this wouldn't have happened if you got vaccinated". So perhaps vaccinated people are more likely to also get tested and therefore skew the data?
> Those that are unvaccinated are in that state by choice, and therefore they are unlikely to be unvaccinated and abstaining from risky behaviours
Your model of unvaccinated people seems a little too simplistic. There is a cohort of folks who have recovered from covid, seen the published evidence around natural immunity, and consider getting the vaccine to be an unknown risk with a known small benefit. That kind of risk/reward calculation is the kind of thing that might have them avoiding (for example) packed indoor spaces.
> So perhaps vaccinated people are more likely to also get tested and therefore skew the data?
Anecdotal, but I think most of the people in my circles are vaccinated and I never hear of them getting tested, even when they have symptoms. Everyone has their own pet hypothesis in these situations, but who knows if any of them are even close.
The simple model of "no covid vaccine" = "antivaxxer" = "dumb/irresponsible/shameful/etc" may feel satisfying and may be heavily pushed by the talking heads, but I don't think it's actually useful.
>There is a cohort of folks who have recovered from covid, seen the published evidence around natural immunity, and consider getting the vaccine to be an unknown risk with a known small benefit.
I guess this depends on your jurisdiction. Where I live (Alberta) we have a vaccine passport system in place so you need to be vaccinated to get into many places. Therefore my assumption was based upon people not taking their past COVID history into account, and rather get the vaccine based upon their desire to go to a restaurant for example.
My theory on who is getting tested or not is admittedly skewed toward the vocal minority of anti-vax protestors that take up more airtime then they truly occupy. I suspect that small group would be hesitant to get tested in hopes of avoiding the "told you so's".
My anecdotal experience currently is that all my friends are vaccinated and get tested when sick. I know this because it derails plans every weekend..."Have to cancel Saturday plans, family is sick and booked a test for tomorrow". It happens almost every weekend in my life!
Some people will have issues with the commentary on this blog. I'm posting it in reference to these UK statistics because it's the only place I've seen the tabular data visualized, if you want to examine the raw UK government data yourself it's linked through from the blog.
0 - https://eugyppius.substack.com/p/ukhsa-efficacy-stats-death-... 1 - https://eugyppius.substack.com/p/ukhsa-efficacy-stats-death-...