I'm a French person living abroad. I hadn't looked at the French political landscape until I recently took a quick look to somewhat prepare for the next presidential elections. And well, it looks like that's how it's going to play out, with no left candidate having any amount of significant popularity, and the extreme right having not one but two candidates that both trump the other candidates on the right. And Macron being the most popular candidate overall. Unless things change significantly in the next 6 months, it's going to be the same second round as 2017.
There is one possibility for a different scenario if LR (the historical Right) manage to have a good campaign and a good candidate. 2017 they were cut short by some scandals, but this time maybe...
I am not betting too much on it though, cause the past decade of discourse and policies proposition on the french Historical Right have made me go away from them quickly... They are quite detached from reality at this point.
The lineup for LR is not exactly inspiring. I don't see any of them standing a chance (although I don't know Juvin), unfortunately. Really, as I see it, the best case scenario would be Le Pen not being on the second round, but then Macron would still win.
