Sorry, I forgot a word there. Post now edited.

I meant, "when this COBOL gig ends", not "when this COBOL ends" which is what I initially typed.

I agree that COBOL will outlive a lot of these modern flash-in-the-pan frameworks.

However, the number of COBOL jobs will dwindle over time, and if I took a theoretical COBOL job today it's not clear to me that I would be particularly employable if/when that job ended. Particularly if I am unable/unwilling to relocate as I suspect COBOL jobs may be much less likely to be remote.

Whereas, in comparison, if one stays current in Ruby/Python/JS/.NET/Java then one's prospects would remain strong for the forseeable future. "Staying current" on the tech treadmill is of course its own special hell, but it is probably the safer road.

    What happens in 1 or 2 years when the current 
    hottest new full-stack, mvc, reactive 3.0 whatever 
    is old and tired and you have to learn the new 
    thing? You learn the new thing. 

OK, but how employable are you at that point?

It's going to take some significant effort to catch back up.

Perhaps more crucially, your resume is not going to be appealing to potential employers. If they're looking for hotshots in the latest framework, do you think they're going to look kindly upon a candidate who's spent the last X years working with COBOL?

There are ways to address that, such as getting up to speed in Trendy Framework XYZ and making some portfolio pieces, open source contributions, etc. But, that's not always a smooth road.

>OK, but how employable are you at that point?

>It's going to take some significant effort to catch back up.

You got 2x (or whatever) the salary until then. That should give you plenty of time to catch up. Currently anybody is employed anyways if one knows how to use a keyboard. I don't think that is ending anytime soon.

    You got 2x (or whatever) the salary until then. 
    That should give you plenty of time to catch up. 

You can catch up, but your resume can't.

Let's say you take a cushy COBOL job for X years and then spend Y years on your own "catching up."

At that point you're pretty proficient in whatever the trendy thing is at that time.

But what do recruiters see? They see, "this person hasn't worked with anything modern in X+Y years, and hasn't even had a job in Y years"

It can be overcome, but... not ideal.

    Currently anybody is employed anyways if one knows 
    how to use a keyboard. I don't think that is ending
    anytime soon. 

It might still be that way in X+Y years. It might not.

In fairness, the new things tend to build on top of each other. You can get off and on the treadmill but it comes with a cost.