Let's just say that is an extreme unlikelihood. The risk that you would get a permanent lasting effect from covid is very large which has happened to many who have had covid, millions are not over their lasting effects. At least with the vaccine it is under someones control, designed vigorously to be safe and someone is legally responsible. If you got covid, bad luck, your problem. I don't know how it works in the US but where I live (DK) if you get some kind of bad side effect from a treatment you can get compensation very easily. I guess in the US there might be lawyers involved or I guess since you got it for free from the government that they are responsible.

Also it's still likely that if you get covid a third time that you will get a worse outcome.

Where I live (France), you'll get no compensation from the state (most H1N1 narcolepsies haven't still been compensated) , any lawsuit against big pharma would be quite risky and not compensated well anyway.

"Also it's still likely that if you get covid a third time that you will get a worse outcome. " > do you have facts backing this affirmation?

Your risks are much higher from covid than from the vaccine.

This argument doesn't hold if he's already had covid. you don't put your seatbelt on after the car crash

No, but you can get into multiple car crashes throughout your life. One would hope they take precautions for the future and start wearing their seatbelt.

...Where both the "much" and the "than" parts are miniscule.

Right, but there's also the social responsibility angle. Given that the vaccine is less risky than not getting vaccinated, then I believe you have a responsibility to get vaccinated.