I don't see how you can possibly make any meaningful conclusions about relative probability from this thread.

It is not from this thread, but my experience over the last 15 to 20 years. I have seen lots and lots of people, including myself, close MacBook lids, toss it in a bag, and start walking. But I do not see that with non MacBooks. It was so notable to me that it led me to decide to look into switching to MacBook Airs.

n=1, but we still weight it x20 because we have the most data on it.

I'm really exhausted by this trend of people adding the word "probability" to their argument because they think it makes it stronger. Just no.