If China invades Taiwan before enough TSMC plants are built in America to meet American, and by extension - Western - demand for electronics, then it's war. Period, end of story.
There is no fucking way in any timeline in any alternate universe that Western electronics companies can allow China to put their businesses on hold, because it isn't just a bunch of AMD and Qualcomm CPUs... it's every automotive company in the Western world. It's every appliance manufacturer in the Western world PLUS South Korea.
China will go right back to 1820. Damn near dead fucking last on the world stage.
The Communist party leadership would probably kill Xi Jinping before allowing him to make such a monumental mistake. And nuclear war isn't an option either, because all of China will end up completely uninhabitable if even a single major American city gets targeted.
And it won't just be "America vs. China" either, it'll be "Every Western nation vs. China". And China will lose. Badly.
People forget that nuclear MAD works both ways when they write these power tripping comments.
If China takes control of chip supply the US will have to play along and try to apply soft power, never war, because China is a nuclear nation with 4 people to every 1 in the US.
It hasn't even been a month since Afghanistan proved (again) that even when you have overwhelming force you might not have a favorable outcome.
> And nuclear war isn't an option either, because all of China will end up completely uninhabitable if even a single major American city gets targeted.
No, by far, China is the only nation which may ever consider taking the first strike.
There is Mao's famous saying, but also the fact China is super crazy about nuclear war preparedness.
Every major city has regular NBC drills, stockpiles of everything, and huge shelters.
If China invades Taiwan before enough TSMC plants are built in America to meet American, and by extension - Western - demand for electronics, then it's war. Period, end of story.
There is no fucking way in any timeline in any alternate universe that Western electronics companies can allow China to put their businesses on hold, because it isn't just a bunch of AMD and Qualcomm CPUs... it's every automotive company in the Western world. It's every appliance manufacturer in the Western world PLUS South Korea.
China will go right back to 1820. Damn near dead fucking last on the world stage.
The Communist party leadership would probably kill Xi Jinping before allowing him to make such a monumental mistake. And nuclear war isn't an option either, because all of China will end up completely uninhabitable if even a single major American city gets targeted.
And it won't just be "America vs. China" either, it'll be "Every Western nation vs. China". And China will lose. Badly.