This is junk science on so many levels it's laughable.
First of all, the population of large modern cities is already exposed to CO2 levels equal to or greater than the test level (900 ppm) nearly 24/7. I just took my CO2 meter and walked around the house. The levels range from 980 to 1165 ppm, the garage having the lowest levels.
Atypical? I don't think so. Not at all. I'll go measure my neighbor's homes and the office when I get a chance. It only stands to reason that a sealed environment would have higher CO2 levels. Modern buildings, in order to be energy efficient, are sealed-up fairly tightly. This makes both air conditioning and heating more efficient. Therefore, without constant air exchange program (which nobody does) CO2 levels indoors are going to be higher.
In fact, outdoor CO2 levels right now are 425 in my backyard and 613 in the front of the house. Measurements taken about 30 cm from the ground and away from any vegetation.
Are people dropping dead? NO
Are people ending-up in the hospital with horrible respiratory system problems? NO
If these numbers were statistically significant one would be able to point out equally significant pandemic-like respiratory and other issues across a massive portion of the population.
What's even more interesting is that 2020 caused everyone to lock down indoors FOR A WHOLE YEAR! This means billions of people were exposed to potentially higher CO2 concentrations than normal. The assumption here being that a more active population moves between indoor and outdoor environments, at least on a transitory basis while going to work, market, etc.
People are not dropping deal like flies at CO2 levels in the 1,000+ ppm range.
This also brought-up another question: We spend hours in our cars. What's the CO2 level in there?
I measured three vehicles, small, medium and large. I took measurements with the air conditioning system set to bring in outside air as well as recirculate (what you might do on the highway to avoid sucking-in fumes). The levels ranged from 680 ppm to 1264 ppm. Now I am interested in getting numbers while driving on the highway with a full load of people in the car. I'll get those numbers tomorrow.
Back to the junk science experiment.
First, as someone pointed out, the size of the test chamber was, objectively speaking, ridiculously small. 60 x 50 x 140 cm. Since it is somewhat difficult to visualize volumes sometimes, I went and measured a couple of household items to get a sense of proportion.
All measurements in cm
Refrigerator: 91 x 83 x 174 volume: 1314 liters
Dishwasher: 60 x 50 x 75 volume: 225 liters
The test chamber's internal volume was 420 liters.
Here's what's odd. They list the internal dimensions as 60 x 50 x 140, which is 420 liters. In the article they claim the internal volume was 393 liters. I'll assume they used-up 27 liters with equipment.
That being the case, the volume of air the mice had available to them was in the order of 1/3 of the volume of a refrigerator and 75% greater than that of a dishwasher.
AND THEY KEPT 53+ MICE IN THERE FOR ELEVEN WEEKS!
Go stand in front of your refrigerator right now and imagine 53 mice in that volume. Go do it. I'll wait...
What's the ratio of air available? 393/53 = 7.4 liters per mice
What's the ratio of air available per human, for a family of four, in, say, a typical 2000 square foot (186 square meter) home? 113,267 litters per person
What's the weight ratio between a mouse and a typical person? About 2,700 to 1
Scaling the air available per person, this would translate into a requirement of nearly 42 liters of air per mouse. The test chamber had SEVEN.
While my calculations are not meant to be precise, the idea is to get a sense of proportion here. If you wanted to conduct an experiment that truly simulated free space exposure to any given level of CO2 concentration you would have to have a chamber of a volume sufficient to eliminate the possibility of creating deficiencies as well as contaminating the very air you are relying on to test for exposure. I mean, what do 53 mice farting for 12 weeks do to a chamber 1/3 the volume of a refrigerator? Their control loop had a single variable, CO2 concentration. Nothing else triggered an any kind of an adjustment to the environment in that chamber.
I could go on, but I'll stop here. There's a whole segment of society --government, academics and zealots-- who are going way out of their way to attempt to create FUD powerful enough to scare people into doing things we should not be doing. Yes, yes, yes, climate change is real and we contributed greatly to atmospheric CO2 concentration. None of that is in doubt at all. This isn't about denying any of it. This is about suggesting we need to start having the right conversations and stop lying to each other.
It is probably fair to say hundreds of millions of people have been living a great deal of their lives in >1000 ppm CO2 levels inside of cars and buildings for decades, maybe 50 or 100 years. Maybe more. Last I checked, the sky hasn't fallen yet.
Of course, one might say: Well, when outside levels get to 900 ppm what will inside levels be?
This is interesting. The test was conducted at the predicted atmospheric CO2 levels in EIGHTY YEARS. In other words, not any time soon. For a sense of proportion, anyone born today will likely be dead by then. So, yeah, a while from now.
This exposes a level of dishonesty (or hubris, if I want to be kind) that is far too common for those wanting to push junk science: Reality is reduced to a single variable. In this case, for a whole 80 years nothing, absolutely nothing changes in the world and the one-and-only variable --atmospheric CO2 concentration-- climbs and climbs and climbs. Like I said, dishonest. I'll add ignorant and manipulative to that.
We know, without a shadow of a doubt, that the planet --because this IS a planetary scale issue-- reacts to CO2 concentration through changes in weather. In fact, we know, also without a doubt, that the two things that happen are: Lots of "water events" (rain, hurricanes, cyclones, etc.) and lots of vegetation growth (trees, forests, etc.). Do you know what indoor farmers add to their environment in order to promote rapid plant growth? CO2. Exactly.
And so, reality isn't a single variable problem. It's a complex multivariate machine. Will outdoor atmospheric CO2 concentration ever get to 900 ppm? Who knows? Nobody knows. And nobody can say one way or the other. What is far more likely to happen is that the planet will continue to react to increased availability of CO2 --as it has been for millions of years-- and possibly prevent this.
Of course, I think we can expect to have shifted almost entirely away from fossil fuel for ground transportation. I can see that being the case in, say, 25 years or so. In other words, anyone who bought a new car today and keeps it for, say, ten years, will likely have lots of good options by that time to buy an electric vehicle. I am doubling that and adding five years to my electric conversion estimate.
The scientific and technical communities need to start pushing for honesty in this field or we are going to waste valuable time and resources on things that will be utterly pointless for the future of humanity.
For now, plant lot of trees and stop cutting down forests. That seems like the most proactive and harmless things we can do without requiring massive government spending programs.
> This is junk science on so many levels it's laughable.
I disagree.
They make a very limited conclusion that 890 ppm CO2 appears to modestly impair the lung development of female mice.
They did not observe an adverse effect on either male mice or adult female mice.
They make no claims about people dropping dead or ending up in the hospital with horrible respiratory problems.
The chambers had circulating fans and a medical air supply that prevented the CO2 level from rising above 890 ppm. The substrate and changing schedule were consistent with practices shown to keep ammonia levels to negligible concentrations. Their methods appear reasonable.
Your inflammatory mouse flatulence speculation seems less scientific in comparison.
It reaches no useful conclusion after torturing 53+ mice (and likely killing them).
You seem to have missed the data I provided. Yes, single data points from my own environment, but it stands to reason that these numbers are likely not uncommon in modern urban environments, homes and offices included.
In fact, I went over to a couple of my neighbors homes and took similar measurements, indoor and out. Same range of numbers. Upstairs, downstairs, in the back, in the front, in their cars.
What does this tell me?
This "research" was pointless. People have been living in 600 to 1000+ ppm CO2 concentrations, likely for decades.
What's the point of torturing mice with an experiment that doesn't even provide a reasonable analog?
What's the point of killing mice in an experiment where the control loop is only driven by CO2 concentration and does not provide adequate free air to dissipate everything and anything else?
53 mice in a box 1/3 the volume of a refrigerator?
My problem with this kind of "science" is that bits and pieces of the conclusion will be make their way into both popular brainwashing marketing as well as documents used to justify governmental policy. Ten generations into the copy-paste train the fact that this was a less-than-ideal experiment devoid of useful conclusions will not matter. Politicians will say things like "Global warming causes a 125% inflammation of the lungs". A statement that has absolutely no support in the findings at all. And yet, it will be taken as a true statement and used to drive outrage, votes, policies, etc.
Won't happen? This wouldn't be the first time.
One of my favorites --which did not lead to policies but rather silly technology and spending-- is a paper from the 1970's that reached a conclusion related to photosynthesis using purple light (no green spectral content). This led to indoor farms and growers buying purple lights to grow plants. In the last couple of years everyone started to realize this was a bad idea and everyone is rapidly moving towards white light now.
Much as is the case with the mouse CO2 experiment, the purple light experiment has serious issues. However, everyone copy-pasted conclusions and charts to justify their decision to go purple. In reality, the experiment looked at something like ground-up plant leaf cells under conditions that have nothing whatsoever to do with real live plants being grown for food (or recreational products).
That's how "junk science" can lead to undesirable unintended consequences. And that's why it should be identified as early as possible. These conclusions are not useful. And, when it comes to climate change, we are wasting valuable time focusing on absolute nonsense.
The reason is simple: In the research community it is professional suicide to speak-up against what politicians and other interests want to drive. You get research dollars and are elevated to hero status if you provide fuel for their madness. And so, if you'd rather have a job and funding, you ignore reality and pander to the political forces pushing this nonsense. That's how we get to 53 mice in a small box and call this "research".
I must highlight (because my statements can be misconstrued) that this is NOT about denying climate change at all. It's very real and, yes, we accelerated CO2 concentration through our industrial expansion. No question about that at all. What isn't real is that (a) we can fix it ("save the planet", a convenient emotional pull for votes and support) and (b) that we are all going to drop like flies (we've been living in 1000+ ppm CO2, likely for 50 to 100+ years).
Anyone who disagrees with me should go out and buy a CO2 meter --as I did years ago. Then go around and measure the environments you've been living and working in for the last several years. From there, assess your own general health and, if compelled, have a doctor give you a full (and relevant) check-up. I'll bet you are going to be VERY surprised to discover you've been living in 600 to 1000+ ppm CO2 environments for a very long time and you and your family are OK.
After that, go around to friends and family and repeat your measurements. Once again, I think you'll be very surprised by what you discover.
If you don't do this, please keep your thoughts to yourself. You are not even operating with the most basic of data sets --data about your own environment-- to understand that some of these claims are just ridiculous.
1) Many people already live in high-CO2 indoor environments. Please see my earlier comment elsewhere in this thread where I relate how my own home quickly shoots up to over 1300 ppm if I turn off my ventilation system. Most people don’t even have ventilation systems.
2) People should monitor their indoor air quality. Consider giving a CO2 monitor to friends and family who don’t have one.
3) We can draw no conclusions from this paper. Please see my earlier comment that the statistical analysis is flawed and the methods could have been better.
4) There is a serious problem with the motivations, execution, dissemination, and interpretation of research today. This has been a problem for as long as scientific papers have existed. Einstein once told Norbert Weiner that he deplored the flooding of the literature by immature, idea-less papers. I don’t think the situation has improved since then. Recent politics haven’t helped.
5) Animals, even mice, should never be harmed without strong justification.
Here’s where we disagree:
1) The fact that people already live in high-CO2 environments does not imply there are no ill effects. There have been multiple studies indicating that high CO2 environments significantly degrade cognitive performance by large amounts. This implies some plausibility for developmental effects in children, which we have seen with other pollutants.
2) Although your outdoor CO2 measurements are not individually unusual, you should generally see an average below 500 ppm unless you live near an unusual outdoor source of CO2. Even next to a busy road in a highly polluted city, the average should be below 600 ppm. I suspect there is either an issue with your monitor or your breath may be sometimes drifting to the sensor. Your own breath can cause errors of several hundred ppm. Be sure to keep the sensor at arm’s length and stay downwind. Even better, get a unit that will record a history and step away from it for awhile.
3) You imply the paper makes extreme claims that it does not actually make. You are probably right that others will make extreme conclusions, but that is different.
4) A study does not need to reach a valid conclusion to have value. Much of science requires eliminating dead ends and finding potential hypothesis for follow-up. It is not economically feasible to study all possible hypothesis. We must make some advancements through incremental trial and error. This paper serves an exploratory function. The methods are reasonable enough to propose hypotheses for a couple of developmental effects. This was really more of a pilot study, although I doubt that was the intent. I’ve seen worse pilot studies that were still useful. To reach credible conclusions, other studies would need to be performed using a larger number of subjects and/or fewer tests along with better statistical analysis.
5) For the past 10,000 years, outdoor CO2 levels averaged around 280 ppm. Tripling that over a few hundred years is an extreme event. It is vital that we understand the potential consequences as soon as possible. I believe mitigations are possible if we develop sufficient motivation.
I don't think I made the claim that our living in high CO2 environments means there are no ill effects. Yes, we are not dropping like flies. I truly don't feel it is an emergency that justifies wrecking entire economies to "save the planet" and other great sounding fake objectives.
I absolutely agree this should be the focus of further research as well as an awareness campaign. Modern building design (homes in particular) are seriously deficient on this front.
With regards to my outdoor readings, well, this is sunny California. There's a highway about a mile away. Not sure to what degree this might skew readings.
While taking readings I was very careful not to breathe on the thing. In fact, this is one of the first things I tested. It is incredibly sensitive, doubling the reading by breathing on it from a couple of feet away isn't all that difficult.
As to your third point, I am not sure I am implying that they make extreme claims. In fact, the conclusion they reach is almost a letdowns in the sense that there was no horror associated with exposing these poor animals to a CO2 level that the planet might not see for a century --if ever. My concern is that a bad study on 53 mice crammed into a box not much larger than a portable ice chest will now start to get quoted by those driving politically motivated narratives as yet another "the sky is falling" fake data point.
A proper study would attempt to look at two or more populations living in very different environments. Humans, that is. For example, study groups of people in both urban and rural areas in different parts of the world. A software developer in Los Angeles or NYC is exposed to far higher levels of CO2 concentration than, say, a rancher in Montana or a tribe in the Amazon. This, if done carefully, could provide us with important data from which to both take action at the individual level and drive sensible policy.
(5) The accumulation of CO2 by humans in the last century or two is very easy to explain and understand. For this you have to go back to ice core atmospheric sample data that is good for at least 800K years of accurate history. The accumulation --which usually took somewhere in the order of 25K to 75K years-- was due to, well, continental scale forest fires. Remember, no humans to do anything about it. Fires were probably far more of a normal reality than we might think today.
The record clearly shows that at a delta increase of about 100 ppm things started to reverse. The 100 ppm decline from there took about 50K to 100K years. Once again, no humans to "save the planet"...it just happened.
How? Rain, hurricanes, cyclones, storms and the massive regrowth of vegetation. The big sequoia trees are 2000 to 3000 years old. The time scale we are talking about represents 25 to 50 times that lifetime. It's hard to imagine.
Sadly, this data leads to a very simple conclusion: We cannot "save the planet" or affect change. At all.
Why?
Because the baseline would be if all of humanity left the planet tomorrow and all of our technology shut down.
We know precisely how long it would take to affect a 100 ppm reduction in CO2 if this were to happen: It would take 50K to 100K years. We know because we have data dating back to before humanity was able to make an impact. In other words, to be crude, anyone selling a solution is selling complete bullshit. There is no way anything LESS than leaving the planet is going to improve the baseline rate of change had if we all left the planet --the most extreme "save the planet" move.
This is a harsh reality. Solar panels, wind power, electric cars, not using fossil fuels, etc. Nothing is going to materially affect the path we are on. Not in one human generation. Not in a thousand. Can't happen.
BTW, I know of at least one paper where this conclusion was reached [0]. Interesting read because the researchers actually set out to show the world how renewables were doing to "save the planet". I admire the fact that they came right out and effectively said "we were mistaken".
What do to, then?
Well, we definitely clean-up our act. There's no reason not to. We can create better living environments. We just have to do it because this would be of benefit for other reasons (the cognitive issues you mentioned) within a reasonable human time scale.
Plant trees and stop mass deforestation. Not so simple, but this is something we can do proactively that will help. No, it will not stop CO2 accumulation in a human time scale. Yes, it should improve local conditions in this scale if done correctly.
What we should NOT do is anything in a list of hairbrained ideas being pushed for political or financial gain. From seeding beaches with chemicals to building city-scale scrubbers and killing entire economies by waging war against fossil fuels. These things range from pointless to dangerous. We are far more likely to kill all life on earth by pretending we can manage planetary scale problems than to do any good.
Going back to the kind of research I said could help. The question is very simple: If billions of us have been living in 1000+ ppm environments for perhaps a century or more (think buildings in the 1900's or earlier, no central air, etc.), is this our "normal"? If humanity has been doing well under these conditions, the doomsday scenarios being painted are likely false as can be.
Sure, there might be issues with these living conditions. And yet, this is how we have lived for a very long time. From the school teacher to the researchers who gave us the COVID vaccines, everyone is likely living and working in 1000+ ppm environments. I am not suggesting this is acceptable. I just don't know. What I do know, to repeat myself, is that, despite what we are being told, the sky doesn't seem to be falling.
First of all, the population of large modern cities is already exposed to CO2 levels equal to or greater than the test level (900 ppm) nearly 24/7. I just took my CO2 meter and walked around the house. The levels range from 980 to 1165 ppm, the garage having the lowest levels.
Atypical? I don't think so. Not at all. I'll go measure my neighbor's homes and the office when I get a chance. It only stands to reason that a sealed environment would have higher CO2 levels. Modern buildings, in order to be energy efficient, are sealed-up fairly tightly. This makes both air conditioning and heating more efficient. Therefore, without constant air exchange program (which nobody does) CO2 levels indoors are going to be higher.
In fact, outdoor CO2 levels right now are 425 in my backyard and 613 in the front of the house. Measurements taken about 30 cm from the ground and away from any vegetation.
Are people dropping dead? NO
Are people ending-up in the hospital with horrible respiratory system problems? NO
If these numbers were statistically significant one would be able to point out equally significant pandemic-like respiratory and other issues across a massive portion of the population.
What's even more interesting is that 2020 caused everyone to lock down indoors FOR A WHOLE YEAR! This means billions of people were exposed to potentially higher CO2 concentrations than normal. The assumption here being that a more active population moves between indoor and outdoor environments, at least on a transitory basis while going to work, market, etc.
People are not dropping deal like flies at CO2 levels in the 1,000+ ppm range.
This also brought-up another question: We spend hours in our cars. What's the CO2 level in there?
I measured three vehicles, small, medium and large. I took measurements with the air conditioning system set to bring in outside air as well as recirculate (what you might do on the highway to avoid sucking-in fumes). The levels ranged from 680 ppm to 1264 ppm. Now I am interested in getting numbers while driving on the highway with a full load of people in the car. I'll get those numbers tomorrow.
Back to the junk science experiment.
First, as someone pointed out, the size of the test chamber was, objectively speaking, ridiculously small. 60 x 50 x 140 cm. Since it is somewhat difficult to visualize volumes sometimes, I went and measured a couple of household items to get a sense of proportion.
The test chamber's internal volume was 420 liters.Here's what's odd. They list the internal dimensions as 60 x 50 x 140, which is 420 liters. In the article they claim the internal volume was 393 liters. I'll assume they used-up 27 liters with equipment.
That being the case, the volume of air the mice had available to them was in the order of 1/3 of the volume of a refrigerator and 75% greater than that of a dishwasher.
AND THEY KEPT 53+ MICE IN THERE FOR ELEVEN WEEKS!
Go stand in front of your refrigerator right now and imagine 53 mice in that volume. Go do it. I'll wait...
What's the ratio of air available? 393/53 = 7.4 liters per mice
What's the ratio of air available per human, for a family of four, in, say, a typical 2000 square foot (186 square meter) home? 113,267 litters per person
What's the weight ratio between a mouse and a typical person? About 2,700 to 1
Scaling the air available per person, this would translate into a requirement of nearly 42 liters of air per mouse. The test chamber had SEVEN.
While my calculations are not meant to be precise, the idea is to get a sense of proportion here. If you wanted to conduct an experiment that truly simulated free space exposure to any given level of CO2 concentration you would have to have a chamber of a volume sufficient to eliminate the possibility of creating deficiencies as well as contaminating the very air you are relying on to test for exposure. I mean, what do 53 mice farting for 12 weeks do to a chamber 1/3 the volume of a refrigerator? Their control loop had a single variable, CO2 concentration. Nothing else triggered an any kind of an adjustment to the environment in that chamber.
I could go on, but I'll stop here. There's a whole segment of society --government, academics and zealots-- who are going way out of their way to attempt to create FUD powerful enough to scare people into doing things we should not be doing. Yes, yes, yes, climate change is real and we contributed greatly to atmospheric CO2 concentration. None of that is in doubt at all. This isn't about denying any of it. This is about suggesting we need to start having the right conversations and stop lying to each other.
It is probably fair to say hundreds of millions of people have been living a great deal of their lives in >1000 ppm CO2 levels inside of cars and buildings for decades, maybe 50 or 100 years. Maybe more. Last I checked, the sky hasn't fallen yet.
Of course, one might say: Well, when outside levels get to 900 ppm what will inside levels be?
This is interesting. The test was conducted at the predicted atmospheric CO2 levels in EIGHTY YEARS. In other words, not any time soon. For a sense of proportion, anyone born today will likely be dead by then. So, yeah, a while from now.
This exposes a level of dishonesty (or hubris, if I want to be kind) that is far too common for those wanting to push junk science: Reality is reduced to a single variable. In this case, for a whole 80 years nothing, absolutely nothing changes in the world and the one-and-only variable --atmospheric CO2 concentration-- climbs and climbs and climbs. Like I said, dishonest. I'll add ignorant and manipulative to that.
We know, without a shadow of a doubt, that the planet --because this IS a planetary scale issue-- reacts to CO2 concentration through changes in weather. In fact, we know, also without a doubt, that the two things that happen are: Lots of "water events" (rain, hurricanes, cyclones, etc.) and lots of vegetation growth (trees, forests, etc.). Do you know what indoor farmers add to their environment in order to promote rapid plant growth? CO2. Exactly.
And so, reality isn't a single variable problem. It's a complex multivariate machine. Will outdoor atmospheric CO2 concentration ever get to 900 ppm? Who knows? Nobody knows. And nobody can say one way or the other. What is far more likely to happen is that the planet will continue to react to increased availability of CO2 --as it has been for millions of years-- and possibly prevent this.
Of course, I think we can expect to have shifted almost entirely away from fossil fuel for ground transportation. I can see that being the case in, say, 25 years or so. In other words, anyone who bought a new car today and keeps it for, say, ten years, will likely have lots of good options by that time to buy an electric vehicle. I am doubling that and adding five years to my electric conversion estimate.
The scientific and technical communities need to start pushing for honesty in this field or we are going to waste valuable time and resources on things that will be utterly pointless for the future of humanity.
For now, plant lot of trees and stop cutting down forests. That seems like the most proactive and harmless things we can do without requiring massive government spending programs.