> both in terms of technical implementation and economic adaptation.
Can you elaborate with an example? Most industry has managed to completely transition from coal -> natgas in the last decade and a half so I find it hard to believe that the transition is just so complex it isn't possible.
If we price carbon at what it actually costs, seems like they'd figure out how to transition again.
I didn't say, nor do I believe, that it's impossible. I even agree with your approach, pricing the externalities into the cost. A few challenges that come to mind:
a) We don't have a good way to normalize offset pricing, there's a nascent market but there is tremendous variability in pricing.
b) It's also not clear how much the offset market can scale on existing approaches and technologies. We can only plant so many trees, and we aren't in a position to run most heavy transport or ag off of current electrification technologies. Eventually we're going to need new technologies to reduce dependencies on petroleum and find alternatives or develop carbon capture technologies for processes that are difficult to reduce any further.
c) Economically, nothing happens in a vacuum. When one company our country or industry begins pricing in these externalities, they are placing themselves at a competitive disadvantage. Tariffs and regulation will likely need to be introduced to moderate the inevitable shift in trade and the increased prices will cascade to the consumer.
Ultimately I agree with most of what you're saying, including that political decisions are a large factor.
I heard a podcast interview with Bill Gates recently on this subject, in which he identifies cement and steel as largely unsolved in terms of carbon impact. solar and electric cars is probably good enough for residential and transport. (Kara Swisher’s Sway on 15Feb)
If you read that it's mostly talking about electrification of the steel mills and mining operations. It's a required step ultimately but is only as carbon neutral as the power coming into the facility.
It’s in Sweden, where almost all electricity already comes from renewables and nuclear. Also, the comment was a response to the claim that steel production was hard to do without fossil fuels.
Can you elaborate with an example? Most industry has managed to completely transition from coal -> natgas in the last decade and a half so I find it hard to believe that the transition is just so complex it isn't possible.
If we price carbon at what it actually costs, seems like they'd figure out how to transition again.