when everybody is trained with at least a basic ability to program, then your super advantage is gone
Yes, but like Math, not everybody can be trained in it. People either get math or they don't. Everybody has to take calculus to become a scientist or a doctor but most people never really get it and forget it shortly after taking the classes. I imagine the same will happen with programming: there will be a few required classes for a basic science education, but it will be lost on most people. Broader exposure will be good, but it won't magically give all scientists the ability to code.
Yes, but like Math, not everybody can be trained in it. People either get math or they don't.
I refuse to believe this.
There may be some very tiny minority that truly is genetically unable to get math. But for everyone else I believe it is merely difficult. Education is the problem, not genetics.
I am constantly worried about this. We (as software developers) are in a time where the ability to code is scarce, and very valuable. But, at some point in time so was being a carpenter, or a toolmaker, or any other skilled profession whose value over time has diminished. In 5 or 10 years, the sole ability to code will probably diminish in value, become more of a commodity, easier to learn, and maybe even become a low-end profession.
However, the ability to create a product from scratch, using programming as your toolkit, will always remain valuable. Focus on that - using programming as a means to an end of creating useful products - and you can't be marginalized by a glut of programmers.
Elance has been sending jobs to the UAE for a decade and developers still make above median wage in the USA.
Suppose the labour market floods with a bunch of newly skilled programmers. HN folks will still have years of experience on those who just finished Learn Python the Hard Way. And: even post this book, there is still a huge barrier to learn basic programming.
Experienced programmers might even like working in a world where more people can code. Imagine if your typical Design Client From Hell could do basic CSS and tweak reds for him/herself.
Yes, but like Math, not everybody can be trained in it. People either get math or they don't. Everybody has to take calculus to become a scientist or a doctor but most people never really get it and forget it shortly after taking the classes. I imagine the same will happen with programming: there will be a few required classes for a basic science education, but it will be lost on most people. Broader exposure will be good, but it won't magically give all scientists the ability to code.