That's not the correct calculation because you've selected the research lab hypothesis post-facto. The correct calculation is to roll a dice representing all the locations of possible human bat interactions and see how many of those land next to some landmark that you can form some sort of conspiracy about.
The only thing that evolves faster than this virus are the conspiracy theory memes[1] that the internet collectively weaves from circumstantial evidence where more and more compelling narratives become more and more widely shared. I'd wager that 100% of pandemics, regardless of origin, will have some compelling conspiracy attached to them. Compelling conspiracy theories is what the internet manufactures, particularly in the absence of direct evidence of anything.
