I mean you're probably right in the sense that the peak of the Gauß-Distribution is probably shifting to the left. The absolute numbers are probably a different story. When more people get introduced to coding, more people are getting good and very good at it.

Think about sports. Are there more people that are bad at skiing in Austria compared to the Netherland? Yes (if you don't count the ones who never stood on skies). Are there more good skiiers in the Netherland compared to Austria? Absolutely not.

I think the fact that you can do coding everywhere makes the comparison a bit skewed. How many awesome skiiers are there in the Netherlands that will never develop that skill?

On the contrary, code quality sucks now because there's not enough talented programmers to go around. So many smart, quick witted kids are getting diverted into other professions. What if the total number of capable programmers doubled with the same amount of work? There's plenty of developers today who would be considered flat out incompetent if you held them to standards for any other industry. At the very least there's not enough qualified individuals on the job market to force those people out yet.