I guess I'm asking what "about right" means. Does it mean you finish faster than that number 50 % of the time? 90 % of the time? No statistics necessary, just your gut feel.
Ah, good question. First instinct says 'success' should be statistically 50% each way. Right in the middle of the bell curve.
But on second thought, being behind estimate half the time would be pretty sucky. So I'd like to bring the peak of the curve onto the early side of the line.
I guess ultimately it depends on the question being asked of the estimator & the implied confidence interval.
