The argument is, if that were the case, it would be sharper than the natural charts of corona viruses otherwise.
To be clear, I first saw this pushed by some epis on Twitter as caution to get to hopeful that we are seeing the vaccines as a resounding success so early in their rollout. It is expected that the vaccines are needed, but the dramatic drop was pushed as likely unrelated.
I will try and dig up the tweets. Could be they have changed their minds with more data.
Also, my first sentence was a question as I am not sure that is what the opening post meant.
Could it be that there's a strain that results in largely asymptomatic cases and there is not enough data on those people? That could result in a decline now due to competition, or the slope of the line is historically wrong due to invisible statistics.
I know there has been some trouble identifying antibodies in people who were exposed months ago. So if you aren't really sick, you only get counted (maybe) if someone in your circle gets really sick.
I do know that sometimes graphs with weird dog-legs are caused by either graphing the wrong derivative[1], or because there are more populations and someone is either being devious or is unaware.
[1] Developers are by and large flummoxed by S-curves for progress. An S curve for distance maps to a bell curve for velocity. If the sums don't make sense, look at the rates, or the rate of change. Don't keep staring at the S trying to fit trend lines.
To be clear, I first saw this pushed by some epis on Twitter as caution to get to hopeful that we are seeing the vaccines as a resounding success so early in their rollout. It is expected that the vaccines are needed, but the dramatic drop was pushed as likely unrelated.
I will try and dig up the tweets. Could be they have changed their minds with more data.
Also, my first sentence was a question as I am not sure that is what the opening post meant.
Edit: https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/1363866144029949952?s=19 had a recent discussion where this came up. (Looking for epis in this one, but not finding them.:( )
Edit: https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1363551912021221377?s=1... is a look at a drop without vaccines