> Euro-critical countries in eastern Europe profit hugely from the EU and would never seriously consider going back to the previous state of things.
The elites of those countries benefit way more from the influx of euros, some breadcrumbs are given to the people and then everyone stays under the illusion they are better off. The central bank keeps pushing money, Brussels and Berlin get happy about it until some external crisis show that the periphery countries never actually changed their ways and now are even more fragile to external shocks and even more dependent on the EU.
Sounds familiar? If you know anything about Greece besides Santorini and Mykonos, it should strike a note.
> if the EU had a centralized fiscal&monetary policy, things would have looked much less bleak for southern parts of the Union.
Sorry for the stereotyping, but this is such a German comment and so short-sighted that if I get into a long response to it my blood will boil a little. Instead, let me refer you to https://nntaleb.medium.com/lebanon-from-ponzi-to-antifragili... who maybe can get the point across better than me.
> The elites of those countries benefit way more from the influx of euros, some breadcrumbs are given to the people and then everyone stays under the illusion they are better off. The central bank keeps pushing money, Brussels and Berlin get happy about it until some external crisis show that the periphery countries never actually changed their ways and now are even more fragile to external shocks and even more dependent on the EU.
Are you saying these countries would be better off outside of the EU? Like, say, Turkey?
Not sure I get your point.
> Sorry for the stereotyping, but this is such a German comment and so short-sighted that if I get into a long response to it my blood will boil a little. Instead, let me refer you to https://nntaleb.medium.com/lebanon-from-ponzi-to-antifragili... who maybe can get the point across better than me.
Not sure if I am going to read a whole article about Lebanon from Taleb, but I take you'd prefer a Grexit early on instead of the drudgery that is occurring now?
You know, at the time this was often discussed. The honest truth is that no one really knows, but everyone is convinced they are right.
It's really where two understandings of reality met.
On the one hand, you had people who believe (like you I'd take it) that economic systems can use reform and a collapsing exchange rate / exports to improve their lot with separation from the Euro.
On the other hand, you had people saying that this would, at best, eliminate decades of economic growth, and at worst, lead to explicable suffering and a mass exodus. All the while cementing the country in a low-income periphery position by virtue of being dominated by the EU central bank actions.
People who actually remember the pre Euro times will remember this situation from countries dependent on the Deutsche Mark, and will also remember that the Euro was - for that reason - France's condition to allow German reunification.
I guess I never resolved in which camp I fall.
On the one hand, no non-EU peripheral country really fills me with confidence that this is a good position. On the other hand, perhaps Brexit will eventually show that such a niche can be found.
What I am saying is that I wished that the EU never existed as a supranational political institution.
Free flow of people and goods? Sure, excellent. A unified body of regulatory agencies to coordinate development of standards? Yeah, ok. A whole political-bureaucratic system that removes autonomy from participating countries and does not allow members to get into bilateral agreements outside of the block? Hell no!
Were the EU something along the lines of NAFTA or Mercosur, I'd be 129% behind it. But this ever-growing monster that it has become, no way. To me the EU is becoming Germany's revenge for losing two wars: they failed by military force, so now they are taking it over by economic domination.
The elites of those countries benefit way more from the influx of euros, some breadcrumbs are given to the people and then everyone stays under the illusion they are better off. The central bank keeps pushing money, Brussels and Berlin get happy about it until some external crisis show that the periphery countries never actually changed their ways and now are even more fragile to external shocks and even more dependent on the EU.
Sounds familiar? If you know anything about Greece besides Santorini and Mykonos, it should strike a note.
> if the EU had a centralized fiscal&monetary policy, things would have looked much less bleak for southern parts of the Union.
Sorry for the stereotyping, but this is such a German comment and so short-sighted that if I get into a long response to it my blood will boil a little. Instead, let me refer you to https://nntaleb.medium.com/lebanon-from-ponzi-to-antifragili... who maybe can get the point across better than me.