How much has anti-mask protesters contributed to the surge? They got a lot of coverage in [social] media, but what's the marginal impact they have, given their frequency?

It's important to establish the actual significant causes of issues, so we now how to improve in future. Actions of those on opposing political sides would be a convenient and perhaps comforting significant cause, so we should be careful in prematurely concluding that.

Anti-maskers made masks political. Even people who aren't anti-mask themselves can be surrounded by a political atmosphere where wearing a mask can be construed as a political message.

Also, people can get demoralized in their personal efforts when they see mask wearing as a "divisive" thing that is a matter of opinion, and when they see other people, especially public leaders not wearing masks themselves.

This may be true, but if you want to blame LA’s situation on anti-maskers you also need to answer the question of why LA wasn’t so bad in April or November when much of the rest of the country was spiking. And on the flip side, why is LA so much worse than ‘red states’ today?

I think a more likely explanation is that the lockdown worked up through the holidays, and then people went overboard the other way. If you lived in Texas or North Carolina, you may have seen your friends and family throughout the year. So it’s easier to keep Thanksgiving small, because the public messaging has been, ‘now it’s serious’.

If you live in California, you’ve been told since March that basically any activity puts you at risk of the virus. Depending on your county, this year you’ve been told to wear a mask when you’re within 30 feet of someone outdoors; that playgrounds and parks must be closed while bars can stay open; that indoor dining is banned unless you’re the governor; that there’s a 10pm curfew despite no evidence that such a curfew will slow the spread. At some point people get COVID fatigue and start to tune the messaging out. And I’m betting that point is around the holidays for many, many people.

The problem with the holiday theory is that the spike started being detected around Nov 1, not thanksgiving. Cases nearly doubled in the first week of the month - and tests are always a lagging indicator.

California is a dense place. And a lot of people live there. It was inevitable since people won’t social distance.

You may still be right. We will know in 2 weeks

My suspicion is that these events directly contributed very little overall. However, they normalized non-compliance and increased the number of people who don't wear masks as a point of resistance.

I agree it will have had some effects, both directly and indirectly. It's not clear to me how significant the effects are.

Granted, we have to act on imperfect information at times.

Their anti-reality stance should not be tolerated. In a time of crisis we are divided over a piece of cloth. They are a net negative in our efforts to contain a highly contagious virus. There's nothing redeemable about them.

They are anti-reality. They are a net negative in our efforts to contain a highly contagious virus.

I can see why you are scornful of them. But that doesn't make them a significant cause.

You’re implying that the impact only matters if it is direct.

‘Actual cause’ implies a singular input and output relationship which is both rarely accurate and the type of logic that enables things like anti mask lunacy, and vaccines, and other conspiracy theories.

Overall I don’t see the problem as anti mask protests...I see anti mask protests as a symptom of the selfish stupidity that seems to impede progress.

> You’re implying that the impact only matters if it is direct.

No, I acknowledge and want to account for indirect effects.

I just want to hold ourselves to empirical evidence, not just our political leanings.

> How much has anti-mask protesters contributed to the surge?

Probably less than BLM protesters.

Logic and numbers tell us otherwise. No probably needed.