If the potential home buyer wanted to keep their monthly outlay at $1700 whether they rent or own, then I think in 5 years if they lose $50k on their house they are likely out more money with a bigger headache than renting would've cost them.
Without property tax, $1700/mo means taking a 25 year loan of $320k at 4% interest. Obviously whether this is too high or too low depends entirely on where they live, but again I'm assuming that they were getting a similar place for roughly $1700/mo in rent, and are comfortable in that lifestyle. That's also assuming they have the cash for a down payment ($65k if they want to put 20% down).
So, if you run the mortgage numbers, in 5 years, assuming interest rates stay at 4%, they will have paid $61k in interest. Property taxes over 5 years (where I live, anyway) on a $385k home would be $15k-$20k on top of that. If we factor property tax into the $1700/mo, then they can only afford a $265k loan, and only pay $50k in interest over 5 years.
Either way, $50k or more interest + $18k in property tax + $50k in depreciation + $15k in closing and real estate fees costs them a lot more than renting for the same time period, and that's assuming that nothing goes wrong. If their roof starts leaking, the deck collapses, they need to move for work or their growing family in less than five years, they are in an even worse situation. (One might suggest we should amortize the $15k in closing and real estate costs over the 5 years and buy a smaller place accordingly, but at that point your $1700/mo rent becomes more like $1150/mo in mortgage payments, so at that point the question becomes how out of whack the renting and buying markets are, assuming again that you want to maintain a similar living standard, and not be downsizing as you're turning 30.)
The obvious question then is how likely "even if your house will depreciate $50k" ends up being.
At the risk of inflaming some - if you were buying the home, a paper loss in market value is irrelevant unless you are planning on selling the home during that time.
The real problem here is that we're not really talking about home ownership or buying a house - we're talking about taking out huge loans from banks and paying them off over decades, along with a ton of interest, and hoping that property values increase so we can trade up to something bigger and end up in exactly the same situation- rinse, repeat. The real problem is that we discuss "ownership" of homes when we don't really own them - the bank does.
Without property tax, $1700/mo means taking a 25 year loan of $320k at 4% interest. Obviously whether this is too high or too low depends entirely on where they live, but again I'm assuming that they were getting a similar place for roughly $1700/mo in rent, and are comfortable in that lifestyle. That's also assuming they have the cash for a down payment ($65k if they want to put 20% down).
So, if you run the mortgage numbers, in 5 years, assuming interest rates stay at 4%, they will have paid $61k in interest. Property taxes over 5 years (where I live, anyway) on a $385k home would be $15k-$20k on top of that. If we factor property tax into the $1700/mo, then they can only afford a $265k loan, and only pay $50k in interest over 5 years.
Either way, $50k or more interest + $18k in property tax + $50k in depreciation + $15k in closing and real estate fees costs them a lot more than renting for the same time period, and that's assuming that nothing goes wrong. If their roof starts leaking, the deck collapses, they need to move for work or their growing family in less than five years, they are in an even worse situation. (One might suggest we should amortize the $15k in closing and real estate costs over the 5 years and buy a smaller place accordingly, but at that point your $1700/mo rent becomes more like $1150/mo in mortgage payments, so at that point the question becomes how out of whack the renting and buying markets are, assuming again that you want to maintain a similar living standard, and not be downsizing as you're turning 30.)
The obvious question then is how likely "even if your house will depreciate $50k" ends up being.