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I still kinda feel like the market beat the polls. Kinda.

In order to interpret the polls, you need top statisticians with lots of domain knowledge. In order to interpret the betting market, you simply read the odds and are done.




If you went to the market and you bet that the polls would be correct, you made money.

The particular market available to US residents has separate issues about "reading the odds" where events that strictly contain other events are often priced multiple pennies cheaper, the total number of expected presidents is often ~1.1, events with probability at least 0.9 are almost always underpriced, often by a nickel or more, etc.




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